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Ismea: still on grain prices, weak signs of a decline in price lists for corn

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The prices of arable crops recorded in Italy on the main trading places and updated to April 2022 recorded further increases on a monthly basis, with the exception of corn, for which a slight fall in the price lists was recorded. Ismea highlights this in the third update note on the evolution of the impact of the conflict on the cereals and soybean markets. In particular, durum wheat lists stood at 503.66 euro / t (+ 84.2% compared to April 2020, + 86.5% on April 2021 and + 1.4% on the previous month) after the peaks reached in the last months of November and January. For this product, which – underlines Ismea – does not have a direct correlation with the war in progress, the prospects are of a future trend reversal in the price lists, if the forecasts of a production recovery in Canada, the leading producer and global exporter, hit last summer by an exceptional drought that cut 60% of crops, in the case of common wheat, whose Russian and Ukrainian production makes up about 30% of world trade – with a large prevalence of countries in North Africa and Asian – prices have started to rise again after a phase of market relaxation, reflecting the apparent progress perceived in the Russia-Ukraine talks. In April, on the domestic market, soft wheat reached an average of 398.95 euro / t, showing an increase of + 71% on an annual basis and of 2% on the previous month. On the Chicago Commodity Exchange, from the beginning of the current crisis until May 13, forward prices showed an increase of 126.00 euro / t for deliveries in May and 129.46 euro / t for those in July. maintaining a marked daily volatility. For corn, quoted on average in April on the national market at 371.94 euro / t, there was a slight monthly decline (-2.6% on March 2022, compared to +59.5 on an annual basis), which is not currently indicative of a market trend reversal. In fact, concerns remain about the lack of the product of Ukrainian origin, in a production context that could foreshadow a further, albeit slight, worsening of the fundamentals for the 2022/23 campaign. From the start of the conflict to today, the forward prices of corn on the Chicago commodity exchange have shown, net of marked daily fluctuations, a constant upward trend, yesterday recording an increase of 69.54 euro / t compared to 24 last February for deliveries in May and 63.57 euro / t for those in July.The price of barley is also constantly increasing, which reached a record of 362 in April 2022, based on Ismea surveys on the Italian market. , 64 euro / t: 89.3% higher than in April 2021 and 3.7% higher than in March. exceeding the record of 700 euro / t in April (+ 5.4% on a trend basis + 1.1% on March 22). For soy, it should be noted that the market is not directly influenced by the countries involved in the conflict since most of the global production and exports are made by the USA, Brazil and Argentina. In this case, the dynamics of prices were influenced not only by the more general elements described above, but also by the decline in crops and stocks during the 2021/22 campaign.

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