• Sat. Oct 23rd, 2021

GDP, EU revises Italy estimates upwards: + 4.2% in 2021 thanks also to the Recovery


May 12, 2021

The European Commission revises upward the estimates of economic growth expected for Italy in 2021 and 2022. In the spring economic forecasts, released today, the EU executive estimates Italian GDP growth of 4.2% in 2021, compared to the + 3.4% estimated in February, and 4.4% in 2022, compared to the previous + 3.5%. The outlook for our country improved compared to three months ago is also the inclusion of the national recovery and resilience plan in the estimates of the Commission, which in February did not have sufficient elements to estimate its impact. The trend of the economy is now expected, for this year and for the next, in line with the Eurozone average: this is a novelty for a country that has traditionally been at the bottom of the Commission’s estimates. The expected growth of the euro area is in line with the Italian one: for 2021 it is expected to be + 4.3%, just 0.1 percentage points compared to Italy, and for 2022 to 4.4%, perfectly in line with Italian public debt is expected to rise to 159.8% of GDP this year, after 155.8% in 2020, and then decline to 156.6% in 2022, the European Commission predicts. Our country’s public debt has increased by about twenty percent, in relation to GDP, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which blocked the economy: in 2019 it was already high, but amounted to 134.6% of the domestic product gross. Public debt has risen across the euro area: on average it is expected to reach 102.4% of GDP in 2021 and 100.8% in 2022, after 100% in 2020 and 85.8% in 2019. In Italy, as in the euro area in general, the deficit also rises, the difference between State income and expenditure: in 2020 it was equal to -9.5% of GDP, in 2021 it should rise to -11.7% for decrease to -5.8% in 2022. In the entire Eurozone it is expected to -8% in 2021 and 3% in 2022, from -7.2% in 2020 and -0.6% in 2019. public finances is the direct effect of public support provided to the economy in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, to avoid more serious damage, such as chain business failures and mass unemployment. Economy Paolo Gentiloni, will exceed 100% of GDP “in seven countries” of the euro area, namely Belgium (115.3% in 2021), Greece (208.8%), Spain (119.6%), France ( 117.4%) Italy (159.8%), Cyprus (112.2%) and Portugal (127.2%), res breast to only “three” in 2019 (Greece, Italy and Portugal).