GDP, Visco: “Uncertainty remains high”

On the economic recovery “uncertainty remains high”. This was underlined by the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, in his speech at the ABI assembly. “This scenario assumes that the vaccination campaign continues at the current pace and the containment of infections is consolidated; delays in the implementation of the recovery measures provided for by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Pnrr) could weaken, also due to the negative effects on confidence of businesses and households, the prospects for aggregate demand and employment “, warns Visco. “In the coming months, the probable emergence of new credit losses could bring the Roe back to more contained values” and “the increase in new impaired loans should however be lower than that observed in previous recessions, by virtue of the support measures adopted by government, the low interest rates associated with the still very expansive stance of monetary policy and the good economic prospects “, Visco predicts. In the first quarter, he recalls,” the return on capital and reserves rose to 9%, from ” 1% recorded in the same period of 2020. In addition to the higher profits from trading activities, favored by the drastic drop in risk premiums on government bonds, the increase reflects the reduction in credit risk adjustments, concentrated in those banks that had written down their loans the most in the first quarter of last year “, explains Visco. In the next few years” the management of non-performing loans, including the choice whether to sell them on the market or keep them in the budget will also be influenced by the reforms planned on the civil justice front “. In fact, as the governor explains, “increasing the efficiency of the judicial administration and reducing the duration of proceedings is one of the objectives of the NRP” and the “plan provides for the recruitment of specialized personnel who will be employed in specific support structures for the activity. of judges, the strengthening of the digitalisation of the system and the simplification of procedures, including executive ones, the introduction of incentives to resort more frequently to out-of-court dispute resolution mechanisms “.” These reforms – he adds – represent an important opportunity for improve the institutional context within which business activities take place, with benefits for the process of reallocating resources within the economy “.” In addition to correctly classifying loans, banks must take steps to distinguish debtors on a temporary basis difficulties but with good prospects of recovery from those who in all likelihood will not be able to re to keep on the market “, he reiterates.” For the former, in fact, loan restructuring operations are desirable to favor the recovery of the activity; the ability of companies to access capital markets and attract valid industrial partners capable of supporting their relaunch would also benefit “, adds Visco.