Ukraine, Clò: “considerable impact on gas prices, EU tied hand and foot to Russia”

“Europe is tied hand and foot to Russia. We depend for about 40% on Russian gas but also 25% on Russian oil. European politics knowingly and irresponsibly made the choice of Russia with regard to its energy supplies “. This was stated to Adnkronos by the director of the Energy magazine, Alberto Clò, commenting on the situation that arose after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. An attack, notes the economist, “which already has a considerable impact on gas prices but which also has repercussions on oil which is around 100 dollars a barrel, albeit to a lesser extent for the moment”. Now, Clò points out, “the offer seems to be able, also because we are exiting the winter period, to satisfy demand despite the very low stocks in Europe which are currently around 30% of maximum capacity”. Then, observes the former Minister of Industry, “much will depend on the trend in consumption which, sooner or later, will begin to suffer from high energy prices”. Much will also depend on the decisions of Germany. “If Berlin confirms the closure of the three nuclear power plants this will probably lead to an increase in gas consumption and the situation risks becoming critical”. Regarding the sanctions, the economist explains that “blocking the certification process of Nord Stream 2 is like shooting yourself in the foot “. Gas, he notes, without Nord Stream 2, whose total capacity is 55 billion cubic meters per year, “will still be able to transit through Ukraine via Nord Stream 1 but this if nothing happens to the gas infrastructure in Ukraine. If unfortunately the pipes in Ukraine were to be hit, the situation would become very difficult “, underlines Clò. The economist, however, notes that “in the past 48 hours Russia has increased its gas supplies which had been previously reduced. It could mean that Moscow intends to prove itself a reliable supplier despite everything.” As regards oil, Clò continues, “the current situation seems less hot but it could become so in the coming months”. The current crisis, as regards the trend in energy prices, notes Clò, “is similar to that which there was in 2008 with the blitzkrieg in Georgia and with the pro-Russian separatist republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Both in 2008 and in 2022 the markets are in great tension and the lack of energy makes the policy destructive much more effective “. As for sanctions on Russia, the economist observes that “the Russian economy is highly dependent on exports. US financial sanctions on banks and the possible reduction in gas supplies would make the Russian economic situation certainly not easy”.