• Mon. Jan 17th, 2022

Christmas, bills and inflation weigh heavily on gifts

Byeditorial

Dec 4, 2021

This year, for Christmas gifts, 158 euros will be spent per capita compared to 164 last year, -8% compared to 2019 and over 36% less than in 2009. This is what emerges from the analysis of the Office Confcommercio studies. Overall, 6.9 billion will be spent compared to 7.4 billion last year, but the climate of confidence of declining households, the strong recovery in inflation and the rise in bills will weigh. “The growth in consumption at Christmas risks being held back by fears of the pandemic, inflation and the costs of forced consumption. To relaunch confidence, the planned tax cut must be accelerated, starting with personal income tax and contributions to be paid by businesses ”, said the president of Confcommercio, Carlo Sangalli, commenting on the analysis. Also considering the consumption of those who do not benefit from this emolument, i.e. the self-employment area, overall the average expenditure per family in December – including rents, bills and utilities – stood at 1,645 euros, 0.5% more than last year, but still far below 2019 (-7.5%). In total, approximately 110 billion euros of total expenditure is estimated for December, 10 less than in 2019. For marketable expenses alone ( goods and services) i.e. food, clothing, furniture, white and brown appliances, computers, cell phones and communications, books, recreation, entertainment and culture, toys and self-care, hotels, bars and restaurants, the estimate is 76 billion, calculates Confcommercio. In 2020, this expenditure, which is strongly correlated with the economic well-being of families, had dropped to around 66 billion current euros. From the trend in marketable consumption in the three-year period, it can be seen that the month of December, also in 2020, a year characterized by a holiday period characterized by many limitations, represented the most important period from the point of view of consumption. The estimates made for 2021 do not consider sudden deterioration of the pandemic situation. Beyond the health situation, some points of concern emerge from the economic side. In November, the climate of household confidence, while remaining at historically high levels, fell back for the second consecutive month. This situation, if confirmed in the coming months, risks having repercussions in the early part of 2022 as well as compressing, albeit marginally, the expenses for December and for Christmas gifts. The deterioration is largely correlated to the re-emergence of inflation which, for the unexpected part, i.e. that exceeding 1.5% -2%, could compress the purchasing power of households, reverberating mainly in a contraction in purchases. of marketable goods and services. In fact, the recovery in inflation is affecting mainly and at least for now, those goods and services that families cannot give up, that is, the so-called forced consumption. Over the course of twelve months, there has been a shift from a context of deflation to a change in consumer prices of more than 3% (3.8% in November 2021). The new scenario has not affected the orientations and propensities of families to the point of changing their behavior, but its continuation will not fail to affect consumption choices.Consumption: Confcommercio, prudent families for thirteenth spending, 32.6 billion in 2021 the total amount net thirteenth is 43.8 billion Rome, 4 Dec. (Adnkronos) (Mcc / Adnkronos) The amount of the net thirteenths that will arrive in December in paychecks amounted to 43.8 billion euros and, after expenses for December deadlines and savings, the share destined for consumption is equal to 32.6 billion. This is what emerges from the analysis of the Confcommercio research office in view of the arrival of the thirteenth month’s salary. According to the metric adopted, starting from the gross wages of employees and the gross pension benefits of private and public employees and subtracting the contribution and tax levy for employees (about 12.3 billion euros) and tax only for retirees (about 5 , 3 billion euros). Between employees (about 19.3 million) and pensioners (just over 16 million) the number of beneficiaries on the whole is close to 35.4 million, which is equivalent, if the professional position is assumed as a condition of the reference person (the figure of the householder in common parlance), to approximately 19.5 million households receiving this additional wages. From the net amount of 2021, 43.8 billion, once the provisions to meet the December deadlines linked to the Imu-Tasi balance and the car ownership tax have been subtracted, an additional portion corresponding to the propensity to save must be deducted , which stands at 12.7% on average for the current year. This is still a very high percentage, albeit lower than that of 2020, forced to reach, due to the restrictions of the lockdown in terms of freedom of movement and the blocking of most of the economic activities of the services, the almost record level of 15. , 6%, considering that to find a figure higher than about one point, it is necessary to go back to 1997. Families, Confcommercio emphasizes, also in 2021 maintain an attitude inspired by prudence regarding purchase intentions, as a consequence of the protracted emergency induced by the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic. At the end of these accounting passages, therefore, we arrive at the amount of the thirteenths destined for consumption, 32.6 billion.

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