Fitch raises Italy 2021 estimate to + 5.7%, ‘surprising growth’

Italy’s post-covid recovery has shown “surprising strength”: thus, in light of the ‘momentum’ brought by the reopening and in view of the further one of the Next Generation Eu plan, Fitch sharply revises its estimates for 2021 GDP. of our country, bringing them to + 5.2% from the + 4.3% expected last June. The picture that emerges from the Global Economic Outlook released by the agency is positive, stressing that the main thrust comes from consumer spending, explaining that it is expected that much of the momentum of the recovery should continue in the fourth quarter, given that most of the restrictions they were eliminated and the displacements returned to pre-covid levels. In light of the trend of infections and the vaccination campaign, Fitch does not precede a return to “significant limitations” in travel. As for inflation, on the other hand, Fitch revises it upwards with a 2021 now forecast at 2.3% (in June it was 1.7%). Overall, thanks also to the impact of the incoming interventions related to the NRP, Fitch expects the Italian economy to recover the pre-pandemic level in the second quarter of 2022. But if the assessment on Italy is encouraging, Fitch observes how in the light of the different trends in the vaccination campaign worldwide, an ‘economic immunity’ from the pandemic is still a long way off, and the scenario is aggravated by supply problems and rising energy prices. This explains the decision to cut by 0.3 points compared to the June estimate, the global GDP growth forecast now seen at 6.0%. And for many large economies, the agency now expects lower growth: so the US rebound is now estimated at 6.2% (-0.6 points) but China’s growth forecasts have also been cut to 8, 1% from 8.4% in light of the repercussions of the crisis in the real estate sector. Conversely, Fitch has revised upwards the forecasts for the growth of the eurozone 2021 to 5.2% from 5.0% in June. For 2022, Fitch leaves the global growth estimate of 4.5% unchanged. Commenting on the data, Tej Parikh, director of Fitch Ratings, underlines the rebound of the euro zone economy continued in the third quarter, even if – he warns – “but headwinds to growth are building up. “” Looking ahead, economic growth is likely to cool down in the final quarter. Momentum will naturally subside as economies return to near pre-pandemic levels, although risks to the downturn are intensifying “.