Fabio Quartararo’s title chances at Misano

Fabio Quartararo will take the start of the Grand Prix d’Émilie-Romagne, this Sunday at 2 p.m., with a first opportunity to secure the title of World Champion and bring France its first crown in the premier class.

On the Misano track, where MotoGP has already visited last month, it is Pecco Bagnaia, precisely the last rival of # 20 in the championship, who starts as favorite: he was the one who took the victory in September, ahead of Quartararo, and it is he who will start from pole position this afternoon. The French, on the other hand, must be content with 15th place on the starting grid, his worst qualification in MotoGP.

Cautious in this context, Quartararo ensures that he is planning on the next Grand Prix, in two weeks in Portugal. Despite everything, he still has a real chance of being crowned today. The only driver to have scored points in each race during the 15 Grands Prix contested so far, he has indeed built up a lead of 52 units over his rival. The other drivers are no longer mathematically in the race: while there are still 75 points to be awarded over the remaining three rounds, the Grand Prix des Amériques has in fact excluded from the title race. Joan mir, Outgoing world champion, but also Jack miller and Johann zarco.

Evolution of the leader throughout the season:

If Bagnaia retains a chance, however, he must count on at least two blank scores from Quartararo in the next three innings to keep his hopes alive. It would undoubtedly be a twist, the Frenchman having never given up this season. Even in great difficulty at the Spanish Grand Prix, he had managed to save three points for 13th place, and he also had five wins out of a total of ten podiums, more than anyone this year.

The Quartararo-Bagnaia duel throughout the season:

If we explore the pessimistic scenarios, we will remember that a mathematical tie on the evening of the last race, in Valencia, would bring the title to Quartararo but on condition that Bagnaia did not win the three remaining races without which the Italian would equal his five wins. By being undefeated at the end of the season, Bagnaia could have the advantage in terms of second places if Quartararo did not get any more: the Italian has indeed three to date, the French two. On the other hand, the Yamaha rider has more than third places (three against two).

To make things easier, the Yamaha rider must leave Misano with at least 51 points ahead of his opponent and he will be assured of the title from this first opportunity. For example, if Bagnaia does not score at least three points or if Quartararo does not lose more than two on the Italian, the title will be played. Between the two extremes of the more pessimistic or optimistic options, many scenarios are possible.

Fabio Quartararo champion in Misano if …

• he wins, whatever the result of Bagnaia;
• he is 2nd and Bagnaia does not win;
• he is 3rd and Bagnaia does not do better than 4th;
• he is 4th and Bagnaia does not do better than 5th;
• he is 5th and Bagnaia does not do better than 4th;
• he is 6th and Bagnaia does not do better than 5th;
• he is 7th and Bagnaia does not do better than 5th;
• he is 8th and Bagnaia does not do better than 6th;
• he is 9th and Bagnaia does not do better than 7th;
• he is 10th and Bagnaia does not do better than 8th;
• he is 11th and Bagnaia does not do better than 9th;
• he is 12th and Bagnaia does not do better than 10th;
• he is 13th and Bagnaia does not do better than 11th;
• he is 14th and Bagnaia does not do better than 12th;
• he is 15th and Bagnaia does not do better than 13th;
• he does not score any points and Bagnaia does not do better than 13th;
• Bagnaia does not do better than 13th, regardless of Quartararo’s result

The points scale:

The other titles

Among the other confrontations underway this season, Johann Zarco could be assured of the title of Best Independent Driver: he should leave Misano with 51 points in advance (to avoid losing on the evening of the Valencia GP in the event of a mathematical tie. and lack of victory) and currently has 37 on Aleix Espargaró, 59 out Jorge Martín, 70 on Enea Bastianini and 71 on Takaaki Nakagami.

On the other hand, the MotoGP constructors’ championship, that of the teams, as well as the title of Rookie of the year cannot be attributed to Misano.

The fight will also continue beyond the Grand Prix of Emilia Romagna in Moto2. However, Pedro Acosta has a match point in Moto3: he will have to score 21 points more than Dennis foggia to be titled.