Covid-19: hospitalizations, incidence rate … should we be concerned about the slight rebound in indicators? – LCI

A worrying rebound? 1,057 new cases of Covid-19 were detected on Monday, according to the latest data from health authorities. With around 4,640 confirmed cases per day, the average of new weekly cases continues to increase (+ 10% approximately) like the incidence rate, all ages combined, which now flirts with the alert threshold of 50 ( 48.4).

The hospitalization rate for Covid-19 also shows a slight increase with 6,468 hospitalized patients in the country on Monday, against 6,448 on Sunday, according to the latest report from Public Health France. Among them, 277 new patients infected with Sars-CoV-2 were admitted between Sunday and Monday and 41 died. If these figures do attest to a timid deterioration of certain indicators of the epidemic, they remain for the moment to be put into perspective, for at least two reasons.

On the one hand, because they are to be compared with other indicators which, for their part, remain stable or declining. This is the case for the total number of people treated in critical care services, which has decreased very slightly, with 67 new entries in the last 24 hours and 1,049 patients currently treated (-3 in 24 hours), against 1,052 the day before, and 1,145 seven days ago. It should also be noted that the number of hospitalizations is also down over a week, since it stood at 6,729 last Monday.

On the other hand, because the levels currently reached have for the moment nothing comparable with the levels reached during previous waves. Thus, if the quivering of the incidence rate is also observed locally with increases of 30%, 40% or even 50% which may seem, at first glance, consistent, the raw figures are enough to put this observation into perspective. As a benchmark, for example, in Finistère, the incidence rate has doubled but, in detail, it has gone from 13 per 100,000 inhabitant to 26, which remains low. Same analysis in Haute-Corse and Vendée, where the incidence rates have dropped from 24 per 100,000 inhabitants to 36 and 25 to 44 respectively. In other words, if the mathematical evolution seems important, the health evolution remains very measured for the time being.

“We knew that with the cold season coming, there is a risk that the epidemic will start again, but the fact that a very large part of our population is now vaccinated will limit the damage significantly”, summarized this Monday on LCI Professor Robert Cohen, pediatrician at the intercommunal hospital of Créteil (Val-de-Marne) while a recovery is observed in some departments having brought down the mask at school.

“I predicted that the epidemic would resume around October 15 – as the fall-winter period approaches. Some have called me a pessimist, but infectious diseases are history repeating itself. this is not worrying for all that “, abounds with Express Prof. Benjamin Davido, infectious disease specialist at the Poincaré hospital in Garches, evoking “the conjunction of seasonality and the relaxation of barrier gestures linked to the fact that we are vaccinated”. And to continue: “From the moment the virus hits in the fall or in the winter, it will find a seasonality – which also allows us to better understand the virus. For the moment, we had not succeeded in observing this concerning the Covid-19 “.

“In addition, the increase in contamination does not necessarily mean the arrival of a wave of hospitality”, he insisted before detailing his point. “Currently, we are at a moment of respite (…) our objective is to do everything so that there is no wave of hospitality. But one of my concerns is to know if we do not will not end up with hospitalized people who have not yet received a third dose (the number of positive cases among 60-79 year olds is up 21% “.