Presidential 2022: in Avignon, the macronists launch their campaign in the not so comfortable position of – franceinfo

The sentence escapes him, at the turn of a conversation, while he has been striving for several minutes to demonstrate the opposite. “It would really take an accident for Macron not to be re-elected“, slips an influential parliamentarian of LREM crossed during the campus of the presidential majority organized the weekend of October 2 and 3 in Avignon. With less than seven months of the presidential election, the signals are rather green for the Macronist camp: a president with honorable popularity, stable polls which give him the winner, a fragmented and divided opposition …

Throughout the weekend, participants at this campus which brought together some 4,500 activists, however, made it a point of honor to hammer home that the election was not over. “People like surprises and to lie to already written scenarios, would like to recall a leading minister. The favorite position is difficult to hold. “” The plan never goes as planned “, confirms one of his colleagues.

At the podium, members of the government and officials of En Marche have therefore followed one another to warn those who would like to step over this election. “We must not take time off the holidays before they come. I tell you, the subject that must concern us is the re-election of the president “, urged the boss of LREM deputies, Christophe Castaner. “Do not let ourselves be anesthetized!” also warned the President of the National Assembly, Richard Ferrand.

Outside the gallery, the caution is the same. “Good popularity opinions don’t make a second-round candidate”, recalls a relative of Emmanuel Macron.

“Lots of things can happen in the countryside, you have to go into it with a lot of humility.”

A close friend of Emmanuel Macron

to franceinfo

But, without an officially declared program or candidate, it is difficult to “to return” concretely in the countryside. So the militants and the LREM staff cling to one thing: the results of the five-year term. “This is the message we want to get across, we will be united to promote the balance sheet”, we assure LREM, explaining that half of the workshops this weekend were devoted to equipping activists on this subject.

“We can be proud of what we have done”, rejoiced the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, large winner in the applaudimeter. “We have a real record. Never has a president done so much in five years”, chained her colleague at Citizenship, Marlène Schiappa, who raised the room to cries of “Macron, president”. But behind the scenes, an elected representative of the majority recalls that this will not be enough. “We need a balance sheet and Macron has it, but we also need a project to justify a second term. leaflets with the slogan ‘5 more years’ when we have not even presented the project yet … “

The future organization of the campaign is also in everyone’s mind. In the aisles of the exhibition center, it is not the acronym LREM which is plastered everywhere, but that of the presidential majority.

A reference to the “common house” under construction, supposed to bring together LREM and the Modem ? The contours of marriage are still blurry and time is running out. “We would have to spend the second”, press a minister. The fixed schedule ? The end of the year. A founding congress should be organized, we explain internally.

But even before it exists, this common house is the subject of discussion. “I know that some are fond of comments on the common house, on its potential components, on its possible growths.‘only one thing to answer them: our unity is our strength “, tackled Christophe Castaner at the podium. François Bayrou has, for his part, enunciated a future golden rule. This upcoming structure “must prevent us from arguing with each other”, he said, as Edouard Philippe prepares to launch his own political party.

Officially selected for agenda issues, the latter sent a small video message to activists to promote his initiative. Without this moving the leaders of the presidential party. “We are very comfortable with it”, says one, assuring that this step strengthens the presidential majority.

#EdouardPhilippe assures the marchers that they will be “welcome” in his future party #LREM pic.twitter.com/hRSlKg3eA8

– Figaro Live (@Figaro_Live) October 2, 2021

The tenors of the macronie have obviously not forgotten to hit the opposition. “There is a little country scent in the air”, first smiled Olivier Véran, before taking out the heavy artillery. The PS? “I am Minister of Health, I cannot shoot the ambulance.” LR and his difficulties in nominating a candidate? “It is with politics as with love, we do not reheat the dishes.”

“We did not talk for hours about France’s Christian roots. We weren’t in front of the cameras to say that ‘the Republic is us’.”

Olivier Véran, Minister of Health

at the campus stand

“The left continues to scatter, the right is preparing to explode”, summarized Stanislas Guerini, the general delegate of LREM. On the campus esplanade, we are reassured precisely about the chances considered low of the LR candidates. “Bertrand hits Macron on immigration, security and purchasing power. Does it work to be re-elected president of Hauts-de-France, but to govern France? mocks a prominent member of Parliament. And Pécresse, can she honestly say that she would have pursued a different policy from Macron’s? This is not true! “

But, more than the historical parties, it is Eric Zemmour who has concentrated most of the attacks. “I have spotted the disease and we will fight it, it’s called the brown plague!” dared to the platform Jean-Marc Borello, national delegate of LREM and close to the president. “He is no longer just a polemicist or a columnist but a political enemy, we must fight him!” asserted a few minutes later Christophe Castaner. An offensive strategy that is not to everyone’s taste.

“By targeting Zemmour, we make him go up. We are overreacting to this guy, we must not fall into the trap.”

A minister

to franceinfo

Why is the polemicist, who has still not declared his candidacy, so afraid of the majority? Officially, because the ideas it conveys are judged “racist” and “declinists”. But it is especially difficult at LREM to appreciate its survey dynamics. “Zemmour is not an epiphenomenon, it must be taken seriously, we do not have the right to say that with 15% of voting intentions, it is an epiphenomenon”, asserts a party official.

“I find it difficult to analyze the power of the one who votes for Zemmour, we do not understand well”, admits a minister, adding that “the calculations, including in terms of electoral strategy, are not good”. By taking votes from Marine Le Pen but also from the traditional right, Eric Zemmour casts uncertainty over the first round, making the deemed inevitable duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen less certain in the second round of the presidential election. For this deputy from the south of France, there is therefore no choice despite the good indicators for the majority: “We have to go as if we were challengers.”