Covid-19 in the South West: How does the virus circulate in schools? – South West

Since the beginning of September, circulation of the virus is declining in Nouvelle-Aquitaine as the latest data from Public Health France confirms: with an incidence rate of 46 positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants on September 20, the region even fell below the alert threshold (incidence of 50).

The Nouvelle-Aquitaine Regional Health Agency specified that this incidence rate was highest among those under 19, with 73 cases per 100,000. sliding week from September 18 to 24 reveal a very contrasting situation according to the departments, with outbreaks of the virus affecting the youngest. The national average incidence rate is 58.69.

Primary: active circulation in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques

The indicators by school level clearly show that only the youngest students in Landes now seem relatively spared from the virus, below the alert thresholds.

On the other hand, in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques the incidence rates are well above the national average with 145.99 among 6-10 year olds (primary school) and 127.22 among 3-5 year olds (nursery school) . The level is also worrying in Gironde (121.54 for 6-10 year olds) and (84.67 for 3-5 year olds).

In Lot-et-Garonne, the incidence rate is also very high in kindergartens (92.07).

For schoolchildren in the South-West, the alert threshold is therefore largely exceeded, even if the trend in recent days is rather downward.

Secondary: Lot-et-Garonne on alert

The incidence rates for middle and high school students are much lower than for the youngest. Logical certainly, since the 12-17 year olds are vaccinated at 72%.

Despite this first observation, one department stands out clearly from the rest of the South-West: Lot-et-Garonne with incidence rates of 77.24 among 11-14 year olds and 63.38 among 15-17 year olds. .

What risk of contamination in schools?

Based on the incidence rates by age group, analyst Germain Forestier estimated, for each department, the probability that at least one student is positive in a group of 30 students. The risk is a priori the highest in kindergarten and elementary school.

Concerning kindergarten students, aged 3 to 5, the risk is 12% in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, 10% in Charente and Lot-et-Garonne, and 8% in Gironde, while it is almost zero in Charente-Maritime, Dordogne and Landes.

For the primary, it is also in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques that the risk is the highest, at 13%. It is 10% in Gironde and Lot-et-Garonne and does not exceed 5% in other departments.

In middle school, this probability is between 3% (in Charente) and 7% (Charente-Maritime, Lot-et-Garonne and Pyrénées-Atlantiques). It amounts to 5% in the Gironde and 6% in the Landes.

In high school, it is also in Lot-et-Garonne that it is the highest (7%), then in Gironde (5%) while it is only 1% in the Landes and Dordogne