Germany: isolated, divided … the far right at an impasse?

In 2017, his score caused a political earthquake in Germany. For the first time since World War II, the far right, through the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, returned to Parliament, at the same time becoming the third political force in the country with 12.6% votes and 94 seats.

After the general elections on Sunday, September 26, the AfD will likely keep a similar representation in the Bundestag. But today, the prospect of this result is no longer moving. “Like many other countries in Europe, Germany has become a country with members of the far right in Parliament”, explains to France 24 Markus Ziener, researcher at the German Marshall Fund, an American think tank devoted to strengthening of transatlantic links. “Until 2017, this did not exist.”

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Above all, since 2017, the party had set itself the ambition of governing Germany after the Merkel era. However, the objective now seems impossible to achieve, the AfD being credited with only 11 to 13% of the voting intentions in the various polls for Sunday’s poll. “The party has failed to set its pace and impose its agenda in the campaign”, analyzes Markus Ziener.

“Immigration is no longer such an important issue”

“What he lacks is that he can no longer rely on the subject that brought him four years ago, immigration, because it is no longer such an important issue for voters.” , continues the specialist.

When it was created in 2013, the initial objective of the AfD was to campaign against the euro as the single currency, seen as a way of forcing Germany to participate in the rescue plans of European Union countries in the midst of the crisis. economic.

“When the Greek crisis finally eased, the AfD left the radar. Its main arguments were no longer valid,” recalls Markus Ziener. “But the movement took on a new lease of life when the migration crisis arrived.”

In 2015, Angela Merkel decided to allow thousands of people from countries at war, especially Syria, to take refuge in Germany, launching a wave of protest in the country. The AfD then positioned itself as the leading figure in the protest. Two years later, it was on this wave that he managed to gather a large number of voters and reach Parliament.

But since then, the Chancellor has backed down, effectively rendering the anti-immigration arguments of the AfD null and void, and relegating the migration issue to the background. According to a recent poll by the German daily Bild, only 20% of voters now consider immigration as a priority, far behind climate issues (35%) or pensions (33%).

Despite everything, this did not prevent the AfD from agitating the migration argument throughout the campaign for the general elections. “Cologne, Cassel, Constance cannot accommodate all of Kabul”, we can read on several election posters. Response to the German decision to repatriate several thousand Afghans who have helped Berlin and threatened since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan.

“The problem, for the AfD, is that the majority of Germans think that Germany can and must help these Afghans”, reacts Hajo Funke, political scientist at the Free University of Berlin, who also sees this lack of interest in the migration issue as a sign of the success of the policy implemented by Berlin. “The Syrian refugees, for example, are much better integrated in the country than what the extreme right wants to believe,” he continues. “And the majority of Germans agree to welcome the Afghans who have helped the country.”

The “antivax” movement

No longer able to count on its favorite theme, the AfD turned to another crisis: the Covid-19. Initially, the party called for drastic measures to be taken to fight the pandemic before turning around. He refuses today to campaign for the vaccine and regularly denounces the “health dictatorship” imposed by the Merkel government.

“It is not a winning bet”, judge Markus Ziener. “The majority of Germans are in favor of vaccination and believe it is essential to overcome the pandemic.”

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And the pandemic has revealed deep divisions within the party, between a more moderate wing in favor of the vaccine and supporters of a hard line. Among the latter, several also claim to belong to the self-proclaimed movement of “Free Thinkers” (Querdenker), a radical movement, often follower of conspiracy theories, which regularly demonstrate against health restrictions.

“They perceive Germany as a dictatorship. They are dangerous”, judge Hajo Funke.

In this context, the death, Saturday, September 18, of a 20-year-old employee of a gas station, shot dead by a customer who refused to wear a mask, caused a stir in the country. Several voices were thus raised, accusing the AfD of endorsing the most radical speeches and of fueling a climate of fear and violence.

An isolated party

In reality, these reviews do not date from the pandemic. For several years, the far right has been singled out for being indirectly responsible for several hate crimes, especially in 2020, when 11 people, mostly foreigners, were killed in the city of Hanau by a far right activist.

Last year, the party also had to part ways with its spokesperson, Christian Luth, after the latter said migrants could be “killed or gassed”.

“Support for the AfD has declined since the Hanau murders, notes Hajo Funke.” For the first time, we have seen a consensus emerge in public opinion and in political parties. Everyone agreed that hate speech can lead to acts of violence. “

In this context, if the political scientist is worried about the influence of the AfD for the security of the country, he does not consider it as a real threat on the political level. “The party is totally isolated from other movements,” he explains. “He’s too extreme. Too close to neo-Nazi ideas. He has no chance of joining a coalition.”

“The AfD is a party that no one wants to approach. It is perceived as toxic, and rightly so,” concludes Markus Ziener, ruling out any hypothesis of an alliance between the conservatives of Angela Merkel’s party and the far right. “Even if the CDU was desperate, it would not ally with the AfD.”

Adapted from the English by Cyrielle Cabot. The original article to read here.