Banks, Banca Ifis Npl Market Watch: “2021 Npe ratio just under 5%, to 5.9% in 2023”

The anti-crisis measures have limited the impact of impaired loans on Italian bank balance sheets: an impact that will be manageable thanks to the greater efficiency of the Italian banking system and the development of the NPL market and the servicing industry. This is what emerges from the Banca Ifis Npl Market Watch released this morning during «Recovery Builders», the tenth edition of the Npl Meeting held in Villa Erba, Cernobbio. According to the report’s estimates, Italy will reach an NPE ratio in 2021 (ratio of impaired loans to total loans) of just under 5% and will grow slightly to 5.9% in 2023. Numbers that demonstrate the resilience of the Italian financial sector: according to the Market Watch Npl, the new non-performing loans – 41 billion euros in 2022 and 32 billion euros in 2023 – will be much lower than the 71 billion euros recorded in 2013 alone, both in absolute value and in percentage terms . The main difference, compared to the previous crises, are the expansive monetary policies of the central banks and the joint interventions of the governments. In Italy, the moratoriums on existing loans, the freezing of layoffs and guaranteed loans have avoided a possible credit crunch (from the first months of 2020 loans are recovering, especially to businesses) and have delayed the emergence of NPLs which should grow with the lack of incentives. In 2022, with the end of the moratoriums, the default rate, or the ratio between new bad loans and the stock of loans granted, should reach 3%, up from 1.4% in 2021 but still far from 4, 5% in 2013. In 2022, the stock of UtP is expected to exceed that of NPLs. Furthermore, according to the forecasts of the Market Watch NPL, in 2023 75% of the stock of Italian NPEs, equal to 317 billion euros out of a total of 430 billion euros, will have left the bank balance sheets towards those of the investors. ” What we are disseminating today is the 14th Market Watch Npl, a key document to understand how volumes, dynamics and protagonists have profoundly changed in this sector over the last ten years – said the vice president of Banca Ifis Ernesto Fürstenberg Fassio at the opening -. Ethics, sustainability and transparency are the basis of our work and it is important to continue to develop this activity that generates economy and new jobs in the country and can contribute to recovery ”. ” The government and institutions have taken extraordinarily effective measures to steer the country out of the economic crisis. Market Watch NPL data confirm this, highlighting a flow of impaired loans not only lower than the volumes of the previous crises but also lower than the 2020 forecasts – said Frederik Geertman, CEO of Banca Ifis -. The impact on bank balance sheets will be manageable thanks to the derisking carried out by the institutions and the presence of the NPL investment and servicing industry which has specialized in investing in skills and technologies. Today these actors are able to absorb non-performing loans effectively and efficiently and become protagonists of the recovery. There are also few industries that can boast a growth in profitability and employment like the Npl Industry. The challenge is to equip itself with increasingly effective tools aimed at an active, sustainable and professional management of impaired loans ”. The tenth edition of the Banca Ifis Npl Meeting was attended by about 300 guests in attendance and a thousand in streaming. From 2012 to today, the Npl Meeting has constantly grown: in the ten years, from the first edition at Villa Fürstenberg in Mestre, there are over 6,000 participants in presence and streaming, more than 150 Italian and international speakers with a very high satisfaction index . During the morning, after the greeting of the Vice President of Banca Ifis Ernesto Fürstenberg Fassio and the intervention of the CEO of the Bank Frederik Geertman, the economist and professor emeritus of the Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris Jean Paul Fitoussi outlined the lines of the international recovery path, focusing on the effectiveness of the recovery plans and investments in businesses and households. Following, the speeches by the President of the Finance Commission in the Chamber Luigi Marattin on the Italian Pnrr amid reactions, critical issues and decisive actions for the country’s competitiveness, by Ida Mercanti, Head of Banking Supervision 1 of the Bank of Italy with a view of the system on the increase in credit risk, its measurement and assessment in coordination with the ECB for supervisory activities and Massimo Fabiani, Full Professor at the University of Molise with a focus on the issue of the timing of justice and the impact on credit recovery deteriorated. There are two round tables scheduled. The first, entitled Credits and state guarantees: banks at the post-Covid test saw Bernardo Mattarella AD of Mediocredito Centrale and two representatives of the major Italian banks on stage: Raffaello Ruggieri Clo of Intesa Sanpaolo and Aurelio Maccario Head of Group Credit Risk by Unicredit. Marina Natale Ceo Amco, Anders Engdahl, Ceo Intrum Group and Francesco Buffi Director CarVal participated in the discussion Investing in Non Performing Loans in Italy, what to expect in the new scenario.