The semiconductor crisis beyond the semiconductor crisis

The lack of microchips, essential in the functioning of the car, from the simplest electric window lift to the most sophisticated assisted driving systems – each car has at least two dozen, the most technological models even more than a hundred – has been making the automotive industry trudge for months. in the moment in which the demand instead increases of rebound in every part of the world after the repeated lockdowns. And while German luxury car makers have been moving away from a volume-based sales approach before the pandemic, the recent gap between supply and demand has shown that their customers are willing to pay more. So they said they were ready to bet that a permanent rise in prices won’t do any harm. As Daimler CFO Harald Wilhelm told the Financial Times, “We have consciously decided to underproduce relative to demand, and at the same time we will move further and further into the high-end spectrum.” BMW CFO Nicholas Peter echoed: “We have seen a significant improvement in our market power, and we will manage the offering to keep it at these levels.” A new approach in the sale of luxury models driven by the chip crisis due to the pandemic which, as Bernestein analysts explain, “has opened everyone’s eyes, showing that a new paradigm is possible”. What has actually been changed, it was not the list price, but the possibility given to retailers to grant discounts that on average are around 15%. According to rough calculations, the decrease of only one percentage point in the discounts granted would bring profits of 17 billion euros to the automotive industries, and in recent months both in Europe and in the United States these same discounts have decreased at least twice as compared to the pre-peak. -pandemic. The time spent by a car in dealerships has gone from 62 days two years ago to 26 today and the discount offered has dropped to 4.3% on average – and if earlier, especially in the United States, dealers were pushing for the cars were available in the salon for prompt delivery, now they have realized that customers are willing to wait and not hesitate in the face of increased prices. As Nicholas Peters explains, “Buying a premium car like a BMW is an emotional decision. Having waiting times, clearly not too long, in our opinion adds something to the experience ”. The plans of the other car manufacturers are not known regarding prices, and it is likely that the less luxurious models will sooner or later return to gain on volumes. Right now, however, the contraction in production is a fact, and in these groups even a giant like General Motors has had to admit that it has miscalculated, and that the semiconductor crisis will have a very strong impact in the second half of 2021. higher than expected. The result is always the same: scarcer cars, higher demand, higher prices. For those who want to circumvent these new dynamics the challenge is difficult. Falling back on used cars doesn’t help either: prices have increased by 25%, even if we are satisfied with cars with a high mileage. Conversely, a used car is becoming a better bargaining chip for trade-in, somewhat balancing the price increases of the new one.