Keys to COP27: the myth of reducing warming to 1.5 degrees is over and it’s time to pay for climate justice

The central chapter of the COP27 is the economic contribution of the rich countries so that the poorest face the natural disasters aggravated by climate change. Experts and international reports consider that it is no longer realistic that global warming can be reduced to 1.5 degrees, as established at the Paris summitThe energy crisis, the war in Ukraine and the increasingly evident effects of climate change add a greater sense of urgency to this climate summitThere is something different about the meeting of world leaders that begins this Sunday in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm El-Seij, the 27th United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP27). The promises and disappointments this time are made in the midst of the energy crisis, with an open war in Ukraine in which Russia uses (supported by other producers such as Saudi Arabia) the supply of fossil fuels and their price as a weapon against the West, and after several months in which the entire planet has experienced the consequences of extreme weather. It has never been so evident that the commitment to renewable energy is a matter of global security. The investments announced in the United States and Europe make it realistic to think of a reduction in polluting emissions by 2025. At the same time, it has never been so evident that the pace of this reduction is insufficient. Humanity is late and to the reduction of pollution we must add policies to adapt to global warming. This last chapter will focus most of the debates to achieve a commitment from the richest countries to the poorest, who demand aid to compensate for the damage they suffer from natural disasters aggravated by climate change, caused largely by the industrial development of the most prosperous nations. What happened to the objective that the planet does not warm more than 1.5 degrees? The Paris COP in 2015 ended with an agreement that has become a myth: limit global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures. Six years later, at COP26 in Glasgow, it was said that the 1.5 target was still alive. COP27 may be the time to recognize that keeping that goal alive may be nothing more than a form of cheating. The temperature of the earth is already 1.1 degrees warmer than it was at the end of the 19th century, according to the United Nations. The World Meteorological Organization affirms that there is a 48% chance that in the next five years there will be a warming of 1.5 degrees. Dr. Saleemul Huq and Glen Peters, from the Norwegian Climate Research Center, take it for granted this week in The Economist that the figure will be reached at the end of this decade. Scientists associated with Climate Action Trucker calculate that even if emissions are reduced, the figure will be between 2.1 and 2.7 degrees. The scenario with these temperature increases is one of catastrophic impact for millions of people. Other United Nations calculations place this range between 2.4 and 2.8 degrees by the year 2100. Meeting the Paris target may have become already in a pipe dream due to the speed of reduction in emissions that would be necessary in a very few years. “Who thinks we can cut global emissions in half by 2030?” asks The Economist Daniel Schrag, a Harvard scientist who was an adviser to US President Barack Obama. He sees it so difficult for the world to be prepared in technological and political terms that he considers it “absurd”. How is Spain behaving? Greenpeace denounces that in the case of Spain, “the Government arrives without having done its homework. It should raise its objective reduction of emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 at least 55%, instead of the 23% expected”. “This objective does not meet the limit of warming to 1.5 degrees. The problem is that the gases accumulate in the atmosphere and take hundreds of years to be eliminated. It is urgent to reduce emissions. It is like a balloon that you inflate, you increase pressure, you don’t know when it’s going to explode, and then it deflates very slowly,” explains Pedro Zorrilla, head of Greenpeace Spain’s Climate Change campaign, to NIUS. The COP27 debate: climate justice Reducing emissions is still necessary, as whether or not the figure of 1.5 degrees is considered realistic. But the most pressing debate at COP27 is who pays for the already inevitable consequences of global warming. The promised goal is that rich countries contribute 100,000 million dollars so that low-income countries can adapt to climate change. That fund should be complete in 2020, it was delayed to 2023 and today it only has 83,000 million. It was one of the most disappointing chapters of COP26. “Very little progress was made on loss and damage, the aid was not broken down and no compensation was given to those who lose the most,” Fernando told SMC Spain. The poorest countries are also among those that suffer and will suffer the hardest. climate change. In addition, they have fewer resources to adapt and protect their populations. That is why it is considered a matter of climate justice that the richest states, which are the ones that have polluted the most throughout history, help pay for this SMC Spain recalls that, according to data from the World Resources Institute, China, the United States and the European Union emit 41.5% of global emissions, while the last 100 countries only represent 3.6%, with data from December 2020. Collectively, the top 10 emitters account for more than two-thirds of these global emissions.