Cities without light, frozen missiles and drones: how winter will affect the Ukraine war

There are missiles like the Javelin, which Ukraine uses against Russian tanks, which freeze at 35º C below zero. The cold slows down movements and forces the fronts to come closer and to space out military operations. From now on, thermometers rule in the war in Ukraine. The cold becomes, once again, a weapon of war. First against the population. Russian attacks on electrical installations in the country have left more than 4.5 million Ukrainians without power. Leaving people in the dark and freezing cold is part of Putin’s strategy to turn the tide of the war, which is going uphill on the front lines. “Energy terrorism,” Zelensky calls the new Russian tactics. Apart from demoralizing the population, the low temperatures – in the area it can reach 30ºC below zero – also change the way of designing military operations. Material freezes, both weapons and drones. More fuel is needed to run generators and vehicles, and there are fewer daylight hours. “The cold slows down everything and forces operations to be better planned and spaced out over time,” Brigadier José Ramón Rodríguez, an artificer at the High Mountain and Special Operations Military School in Jaca (Huesca), explains to NIUS. Missiles slower and the enemy closer “Both the Ukrainian and Russian armies are used to the cold. Their material, too,” explains the brigade, but some weapons do not withstand certain temperatures. For example, the American-made Javelin anti-tank missiles that the Ukrainians use against Russian armor, “cannot withstand temperatures below 35ºC, their fins freeze, they lose precision and their optics are fogged by thermal contrast”, Rodríguez affirms. The United States has sent more than 5,500 of these missiles to Ukraine since the conflict began. The Javelin anti-tank missiles, used against the Russians, cannot withstand temperatures below -35ºC In addition, cold air is denser than hot air , which causes the ammunition to go “slower due to the friction force, and also the gunpowder used in the charges to propel the projectile burns more slowly”. Both circumstances mean that the projectiles do not go as far. “The ranges – the distance that the projectile travels – are shortened and that forces us to get closer to the enemy,” explains the brigade. Ukrainian soldier with a Javelin Getty anti-tank missile In addition, the cold gives away. “The charges produce gases that can be seen more at low temperatures from a distance, it’s like a kind of fog, which can alert you to your position,” explains Brigadier Rodríguez. Or for example “the noise of loading weapons so they don’t freeze can anticipate your position,” continues the military man. Machine guns and rifles, both the UAR-15 or the Mayluk used by the Ukrainians, as well as the AK-12 Kalashnikov used by the Russians, need to be ‘warmed up’, assembled and disassembled several times a day, “every half hour you have to put and remove the charger. They cannot go directly from cold to heat. Any small element can freeze and break. The cold can even weld parts,” says the brigade. That is why the protocol to keep weapons “warm” at all times is also key on both sides.Ukrainian soldier with a UAR-15 rifleUkrainian Defense ReviewEngines running and dosed explosives. Low temperatures make it necessary to keep the engines of military vehicles running to prevent them from freezing. From tanks to trucks. Which translates into an increase in fuel consumption on both sides. “Discipline is necessary. You have to start the vehicles every few minutes, normally it is usually 15 minutes of engine running every half hour,” says Aurelio Soto, head of communication at the UME (Military Emergency Unit). “With the cold, the batteries they also lose load capacity and all the electrical equipment is affected,” explains Brigadier Rodríguez. Also when you try to heat it “other problems arise, such as condensation, which can cause short circuits in some instruments,” he adds. The devastation of Chernigov after the passage of Russian troops, seen from a drone You also have to be careful with explosives, for example Rubber 2’s plastic hardens at temperatures below zero “and working with it is like working with hard plasticine, and when putting a load on a bridge it can take much longer,” says the artificer. TNT, trinitrotoluene, has an even bigger problem. “It crystallizes in the cold and it is forbidden to use it in winter and in low temperatures since it detonates with any small blow.”Warm clothing and civil supportLogistics also play a key role. Ukrainian soldiers are well equipped with warm clothes. Canada has supplied them with 500,000 winter uniforms, even Spain has provided 70,000. But the heat is also among the civilian population that supports them by giving them shelter and hot meals. Canada has sent half a million winter uniforms and Spain 70,000 to Ukraine The Russian military does not have the same acceptance among the occupied territories in Ukraine and many of the men mobilized (some by force) do not have basic equipment, not even ammunition, as they have denounced in a video in the Russian media Astra. A Russian tank in the town of Izum (Ukraine) on September 14. Global Images Ukraine Another question is whether the winter will be hard and dry or milder and wet. With the roads and the frozen ground, the raids are easier but the material suffers. A rainy winter can turn fields into quagmires, and the experience of last spring took its toll on Russian tanks unable to move through the mud. The mud also harms Ukraine in places to recover like Kherson. We will have to see how it ends. ‘Winter is coming’.