HEULER ANDREY / AFP Right-wing federal deputy and presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro greets supporters during a rally at Afonso Pena airport in Curitiba, Brazil, March 28, 2018. – Bolsonaro, who has done several repeatedly praising Brazil’s two-decade military dictatorship, taunted Lula, calling him a “bandit”, and challenged him in Curitiba to see “who can get the most people out on the streets without pay them. (Photo by Heuler Andrey / AFP) HEULER ANDREY / AFP Even if Jair Bolsonaro loses the Brazilian presidential election this Sunday, October 30, Bolsonarism will continue. (Illustrative: Jair Bolsonaro waves to supporters during a rally at Afonso Pena airport in Curitiba, Brazil, March 28, 2018). BRAZIL – “Bolsonaro may disappear from the political scene, but Bolsonarism will not”. Matthieu Trouvé, lecturer in contemporary history at Sciences Po Bordeaux, explains to HuffPost that this far-right ideology supported by conservatives and evangelicals has already won. And that, whatever the result this Sunday, October 30 of the second round of the Brazilian presidential election. The outgoing president succeeded in forcing a second round against Lula, the left-wing candidate of the Workers’ Party. Big favorite in the polls before the first round on October 2, the former head of state (2003-2011) came out on top with 48% of the vote. Although Jair Bolsonaro only came second with 43% of the vote, the five-point gap between the two rivals is much smaller than what the polls showed. The match should be close again this Sunday between Lula and Bolsonaro even if the polls unanimously give a lead to Lula with 52 to 53% of the voting intentions. But whether he wins or loses the final sprint, Bolsonaro will continue to influence Brazilian politics. Influence of the political system In addition to making it to the second round, the outgoing president indeed managed to have a large number of those close to him elected to Parliament on 2nd October. By winning 99 seats out of 513 in the lower house of Brazil’s Congress, three times more than in 2017, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party gave the far right its best result in more than forty years. In the Senate, the Liberal Party (PL) of Bolsonaro obtained 14 seats against only 8 for the Workers’ Party (PT) of Lula and becomes the first formation in the upper house. The extreme right is also progressing among the country’s governors and regional assemblies. There is a “grip of Bolsonarism on the Brazilian political system”, says to HuffPost Juliette Dumont, lecturer in Contemporary History at the Institute of Higher Studies of Latin America. The researcher adds that Bolsonaro has appointed many soldiers in the senior federal administration with whom Lula, if elected, will necessarily have to negotiate to form a new government. This institutional omnipresence is made possible by “very important conservative forces which support him and are almost fanatical”, adds Matthieu Trouvou who recalls that the leader is nicknamed “the myth” by his sympathizers. A heterogeneous political base Among them, the evangelicals, who have gone from 5% to more than 30% of the population in less than three decades. Evangelical churches have thus acquired major political and media influence in recent years, rooting religious morality and conservative values in society. Especially since President Bolsonaro gave them privileged access “to radio waves and allowed tax exemptions on evangelical television”, explains Juliette Dumont. He also receives the support of the powerful arms lobby after having made the liberalization of the carrying of arms a priority. Consequence: “The number of weapons in circulation has quadrupled in four years. The idea of using violence to defend one’s rights has spread a lot in Brazilian society,” continues the historian. Cattle farmers and soybean farmers are also largely behind him, favored by the agribusiness promoted by Bolsonaro at the expense of environmental legislation and deforestation. Jair Bolsonaro also knew how to seduce the people by piquing the image of the president of the poor maintained by Lula, the first head of state from the working classes but targeted by corruption scandals. “He cultivates his image of a mediocre man who assumes speaking badly, swearing, not being an educated and cultivated person”, analyzes the researcher. The far right has also been able to seize social discontent, especially during the 2013 demonstrations against rising transport prices. Bolsonarism on social networks Thus, despite the president’s “catastrophic” record marked by cuts in public spending, disastrous management of the health crisis, or even an acceleration of deforestation, Brazilians continue to support him, abounds Matthieu Found. “His supporters are convinced that he is the only one who can get Brazil out of the economic and social crises” that the country is going through, confirms Juliette Dumont. Bolsonarism has infused society also thanks to social networks. In Brazil, 80% of the population have WhatsApp or Telegram and more than 40% of Brazilians only get information from these media. This represents “a striking and nuisance power that will last beyond a possible defeat of Bolsonaro”, adds the researcher. What if he wins? “It would be a disaster for Brazil and an acceleration of the ‘fascination’ of Brazilian society and politics”, replies Juliette Dumont. Should Bolsonaro still admit defeat? “He’s been explaining for a year that if he doesn’t win, it’s because there will have been electoral manipulation,” she adds, fearing a “new episode of the Capitol (invasion by Trump supporters in January 2021 Ed)” and an escalation of violence. See also on The HuffPost: You cannot view this content because you have refused the cookies associated with content from third parties. If you want to view this content, you can change your choices.