Covid, pandemic effect on life expectancy: in 2021 it dates back to Italy

The starting point is one: the Covid-19 pandemic “has triggered an unprecedented increase in mortality, which has translated into loss of life expectancy around the world, with only a few exceptions”. But then some countries experienced a recovery: in Western Europe, for example, there was a positive rebound compared to the loss of life expectancy recorded in the black year of 2020, when the tribute paid to Sars-CoV-2 was very high. Other countries, on the other hand, are struggling to recover on this front. Eastern Europe and the United States, in particular, had sustained and severe life expectancy deficits. A prolonged decline over time from which it is difficult to recover. This is the picture that emerges from an international study published in ‘Nature Human Behavior’. Italy is among the 8 countries that have marked the most significant recoveries in life expectancy from losses in 2020 (Belgium, Switzerland, Spain, France, England and Wales, Italy, Sweden and Slovenia). “We estimated changes in life expectancy in 29 countries since 2020, attributed them to changes in mortality by age group, and compared them to historical life expectancy shocks. Our results show a divergence in impacts on mortality of the pandemic in 2021 “, highlight the authors, Jonas Scholey of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany), José Manuel Aburto of the University of Oxford (UK) and colleagues. “The life expectancy deficits during autumn / winter 2021 among people over 60 and under 60 were negatively correlated with vaccination compliance measures in all countries”, note the experts. “Contrary to 2020”, in terms of excess mortality, “the age profile in 2021 was younger: those under 80 contributed most to the loss of life expectancy”, the authors note. Finally, “even in 2021 the deaths recorded for Covid continued to account for most of the losses in life expectancy”. The authors try to interpret the engine of the divergences observed in 2021, after the shock of 2020. And in their conclusions they write that “it is plausible that countries with ineffective public health responses will see a prolonged health crisis induced by the pandemic, with stalls in the medium term in life expectancy improvements, while other regions will manage a smoother recovery towards a return to pre-pandemic trends. “