Ukraine, in Russia the mood of the elites is very bad

While the two war ‘mastiffs’ Ramzan Kadyrov and Evgheny Prigozhin cheered on the new course of the military operation against Ukraine on Monday, several members of the political and economic elite in Russia express darker emotions in interviews, with hidden identity , with the Washington Post. The raids against Ukrainian cities are seen as a partly organized military escalation to hide the problems of the operation with an impact that will however only be temporary. Because “it is clear that a military or even a political victory is not possible”. On the other hand, explains a public official, “not even a defeat is. The situation is turning into what in chess is called zugzwang”. “We have begun to enter a revolutionary situation. Everyone is waiting for something different than what is happening now: a different leadership, a different war. The hawks want more decisive action. The doves do not want war. The time is ripe for change. of the political system. But how it will happen, I don’t know, “he added.” On the battlefield there are other problems. I don’t think this escalation will release the pressure, “said an influential Moscow businessman, citing the arrival of winter. , the amount of missiles left in Russian arsenals and the limited time in which the raid campaign can be sustained. “The missiles are being produced, but in very small numbers. And the reserves are running out”, added a member of the bureaucracy, denouncing that “nobody likes the status quo”. This summer’s optimism about gains on the ground “has evaporated completely. People see no future,” explains another public official. “In a few months there will be a very negative dynamic in Russia. There will be a worsening of public opinion”, added the businessman. “Putin’s arsenal of possible actions is very limited. Apart from hitting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, his only other option is to use a tactical nuclear warhead. If the Ukrainian counter-offensive continues, Putin will face the attack. question of what to do more “, said Sergei Aleksashenko, former governor of the central bank, now in exile in the United States. But very few in Moscow think that the Russian president will actually order the use of a nuclear warhead. “After that he would no longer know what to do and China could directly oppose this kind of escalation. It is a Pandora’s box that the Chinese do not want to open,” he adds. Putin was galvanized by the deal on oil production cuts reached with Saudi Arabia. Although energy prices will remain at the same levels, the Russian President “is convinced that Europe will be in crisis and will have no time for Ukraine. But this remains a war of attrition, and will continue until one of the two sides is no longer able to continue the war. ” In December in Russia “we will see a completely different reality,” says Sergei Guriev, the Russian economist in exile in Paris, where he heads SciencesPo. “The whole business world suffers from what is happening. Everyone froze their investment plans. The past idea that Russia could redirect its trade flows from the West to China, Kazakhstan and India is it is dissolving “, add two executives of economic realities, specifying that Kazakhstan has begun to block cargoes with European goods bound for Russia and the Chinese have begun to block some supplies. “Everyone is completely frustrated. The mood is bad,” testified a third businessman.