Why the future of the planet is (also) at stake in the Brazilian elections

Brazil elects its next president 5:08 (CNN Spanish) — Not only the people of Brazil risk their future in the presidential elections. The crisis that the Amazon is going through has already influenced the climate of Latin America and the Caribbean, where almost 660 million people live, and could have planetary impacts. The decisions made by the next president are key to the fate of the world’s largest rainforest… and ours. Fires in the Amazon rainforest spiked this September, which has become the worst month in more than a decade, according to Reuters. According to data from INPE, the national space research agency, this year there were nearly 37,000 fire alerts until September 26, which means an increase of 120% compared to the same month in 2021 and the worst result since 2010. The destruction of this ecosystem—key to the hydrological cycle of the Americas and home to 25% of terrestrial biodiversity—usually increases in election years as a result of two actions: a decrease in law enforcement and the action of loggers, large farmers and ranchers and the mining industry, who are rushing in fear that there may be changes in conservation policies in the Amazon. But this is not an isolated phenomenon. In 2021, for example, deforestation doubled compared to the average for the 2009-2018 period, according to the World Meteorological Organization, and 22% more forest area was lost than the previous year. And how the future president responds to this reality is key. Lula or Bolsonaro? This is how the candidates arrive in Brazil 3:32 What Bolsonaro and Lula promise… and what they have done The Amazon has been a repeated word in the campaign ahead of the elections that will define whether the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, gets a new term, or if former president Lula da Silva (2003 – 2010) returns to the Planalto Palace. In a series of actions since assuming power in 2019, the Bolsonaro government “has effectively weakened federal environmental agencies and demonized organizations that work to preserve the rainforest, and has spoken out in favor of economic growth in the indigenous lands, arguing that it is well-being for the indigenous groups themselves, as CNN’s Kara Fox explains in this analysis Last week, in his speech at the UN, Bolsonaro said that most of the Amazon is intact and took aim at the media outlets for its reports linked to deforestation.While it has repeatedly failed to respond to CNN’s requests for comment, the administration has defended its programs to combat illegal activities in the rainforest, which are featured on its Government Lula, on the other side, has fiercely criticized the “policy of devastation” of the current administration, in the words of his program, and h committed to combating environmental crimes. “Under our governments, we have reduced deforestation in the Amazon by almost 80%, the largest contribution ever made by a country to climate change mitigation between 2004 and 2012. We have already committed to the future of the planet, without any obligation legal, and we will do it again”, promises its program. From Greenpeace they confirmed these figures: by 2004 the country had a record dismantling of 24,000 square km per year and a prevention and combat plan was launched that reduced deforestation by 83%. The decisions that are made will directly affect the indigenous peoples who inhabit and protect the Amazon and all of Brazil. And indirectly they will also affect us, from the south of Argentina to the north of Mexico and beyond. We explain why. The activists ask for commitments to reverse the current policies In this campaign, the environmental issue “came up more than in previous years, but still in a very superficial way, without clear goals,” explained to CNN in Spanish Mariana Mota, coordinator of Public Policies of Greenpeace Brazil. For the organization, “the next government, whatever it may be, needs to have a concrete and effective commitment to reverse the current policy implemented by the Bolsonaro government.” There are four key aspects, according to Mota. One of them is financing: the budget for the 2020 environmental agenda, according to the figures they manage, was the lowest in 21 years, and since then it has continued to fall. For the organization, it is imperative to work for the end of the blockade of the Amazon Fund, a joint initiative of Norway, Germany and Brazil that involved donations from European countries for the protection of the forest and that was paralyzed in the current administration. “In addition to budgetary capacity, it is necessary for environmental protection institutions to have technically trained personnel, which is not currently the case,” said Mota, adding a second point. The commitment to citizen participation and transparency is also vital for them. Bolsonaro “closed many councils, participatory committees, in which society collaborates and manages to help build policies that benefit the community and not private interests,” Mota explained, so the recovery of these spaces for them is key to reverse current governance. The organization acknowledges Lula’s positive track record in managing the Amazon, which also included the establishment of conservation units occupying millions of hectares, but insists on the need for the next administration to address the current precarious situation. How the Amazon determines the climate of an entire continent The climate of the continent is being affected by the crisis that the Amazon is going through, Rodney Martínez, WMO representative for North, Central and Caribbean America, previously explained to CNN en Español. Why? “The vegetation cover of the jungle is essential for the regional hydrological cycle,” he explained, and the destruction of the ecosystem to convert the territory into pasture has reduced “the natural capacity of the Amazon to distribute moisture that is useful for all the countries of South America. including the Caribbean”. In other words: the transpiration generated by the Amazon rainforest is essential for the return of water to the atmosphere, water that then returns to the earth. However, the destruction of the forest and its replacement by other vegetation such as pastures makes the transpiration process not favorable to the cycle: these pastures absorb moisture and dry out the soil. The droughts that the country and the entire region have faced and the forest fires “make this soil degradation worse and the possibility of regeneration also worsens.” “What is happening and will continue to happen in the Amazon is going to affect the entire continent and possibly beyond our continent, the global climate,” he explained. In other words, it is not only about the regional impact, but “it is beginning to be associated as a factor that can influence the global climate through chains (…)”. Moments from the first presidential debate in Brazil 3:39 The tipping point: from jungle to savannah In fact, the Amazon rainforest could be approaching a critical tipping point that causes it to transform into a grassy savannah, according to a study published in March of this year. Scientists say that around three-quarters of the rainforest shows signs of “resilience loss” – that is, a reduced ability to recover from disturbances such as drought, logging and fire – and that this loss of resilience has been going on for more than 20 years. It is a sign of irreversible decline. It is not possible to know exactly when it will go from jungle to savannah, but when it is evident, it will already be too late. Burned areas near Moraes Almeida in the Brazilian state of Pará are shown in September 2019. Experts say there is a strong link between deforestation and fires in the Amazon rainforest. If that point is reached, “we will have a major feedback to global climate change,” Timothy M. Lenton, director of the Institute for Global Systems at the University of Exeter, UK, said at the time. The Amazon allows the elimination of some 90,000 million tons of carbon dioxide, especially in the trees, but also in the soil, said the scientist, and if it ceases to be a tropical forest it will not be able to store that carbon. Europe and the United States have been attentive to the situation in the Amazon. For the government of Joe Biden, as the State Department spokesman said in 2021, “supporting and encouraging Brazil’s actions to reduce deforestation and ensure the path to a strong future with net zero emissions” is a “key approach”. The administration’s relationship with Bolsonaro, with regard to the Amazon jungle, has had its pitfalls amid the demands of the North American country and the South American responses. Lula, meanwhile, has already appealed to the European Union, stating days ago that he would need their support to preserve biodiversity and promote development in the Amazon without damaging the forest. The environmental match between Bolsonaro and Lula is also being played outside the country’s courts. With reporting from CNN’s Katie Hunt and Kara Fox.