Mayra Oyola-Merced, NASA collaborator: “It is possible that Spain will suffer a category 5 hurricane”

Climate change is causing the Atlantic to heat up and hurricanes to move to regions, such as Spain, where they had not been common until now, NIUS has spoken with an expert who assures that “we should not be afraid, but prepare ourselves” and warns of that if they reach Europe “the countries that will be affected first are those that have a coastline, like Spain or Portugal” We have confirmed this with ‘Danielle’. Climate change is causing hurricanes to reach unpredictable places, as was Spain until very recently. And although this tropical cyclone has reached our weakened country, in the form of a storm, we are still feeling its effects, autumn temperatures, storms and strong gusts of wind. What would have happened if our country had hit as a hurricane? Is it possible for something like this to happen? Should we get used to this threat? Are we prepared to face it? Responds to NIUS Mayra Oyola-Merced, NASA collaborator, expert in physics and atmospheric prediction. She attends us from the University of Wisconsin, where she teaches, and her response is resounding. “The threat is real. Spain could suffer the effects of a hurricane and should prepare for it,” she says. “It’s not unreasonable.” She asks her. She will understand that many have a hard time believing it. Could a category 5 hurricane, like Katrina, really reach the Peninsula? Answer. The possibility exists, perhaps it is small, because when they come into contact with colder waters, the hurricanes lose intensity, also because Spain is close to the area where these new hurricanes are forming and for this phenomenon to gain strength it takes time… but the climate change is upending everything we knew and we’re seeing hurricanes intensifying in less than 48 hours and sky-high water temperatures in the upper Atlantic that have never been recorded before, so it’s not impossible. Let’s hope not, because that would be obviously devastating. I am from Puerto Rico. I have seen hurricanes of that category. I have seen my family suffer from Hurricane Maria that devastated the country in 2017, to the point that there are still parts of the island that are recovering from this hurricane. So it’s important to take these things very seriously. We don’t know if something like this is going to happen, but everything indicates that it is possible. And if it happens, the countries that will be affected first are those that have a coast, like Spain or Portugal, for example. Q. The experts agree that the most normal thing is that if they arrive in Spain they are from lower categories, one or two. Can we relax? No. It is a widespread error, to think that low category hurricanes do not cause damage or that tropical storms are more harmless…Obviously we would have to see the direct impact, the direction, the storm surge, because what really does a lot of damage during a hurricane it is the storm surge, that is, the water. Wind speed is basic when it comes to categorizing a hurricane and the winds also cause problems, but the most deadly and damaging thing a hurricane has is water, and it can be of a lower category but carry a lot of water. take into account the category, you also have to be aware of the conditions of the area, if before this phenomenon it has rained a lot or the opposite, if there is drought and the land is eroded, both things can be fatal because there may be landslides Q. Well, in Spain we have a serious drought…R. Exactly, in Spain it has rained little and it has been very hot this summer, I know there have been strong forest fires, so when we have this prevailing erosion, if a hurricane comes in and it starts to rain heavily, the risk of landslides is enormous. P. Is Spain or Europe, in general, prepared to receive a hurricane? A. No, and they should. Have contingency plans in case that could happen. Prepare before hurricane season hits, which typically runs from June 1 to November 30. Q. How can we prepare to receive a hurricane in Spain? A. Well, one of the fundamental things for people, obviously, is to prepare their houses, to see if they live in areas that are prone to flooding, to winds… Having an evacuation plan if our home cannot withstand winds of certain categories, or if we are near the coast and it can be flooded. Not just individually, but a government plan. Another thing would be to stock up on canned food that can last if refrigeration is not available. The same with medications. People with certain pathologies that need a fixed medication must have a reserve at home. It is important because obviously in an emergency we will not know how long it will take to replace or obtain a new prescription or new medications. And lastly, there must be communication between government offices, local disaster management offices and emergency and population. It is essential for the government to educate the population, and it is very important for the population in general, to stay up to date and educate themselves on the possible impacts of hurricanes or any other type of disaster in their area. Just listening to her scares…R. I never like to use the word scare. You don’t have to be afraid, you have to be prepared because that’s what will help us face an emergency like this. If it were to occur, it is a serious situation, which is why it requires preparation, caution and calm. P. Has Danielle paved the way for other hurricanes, even though she has arrived transformed into a storm? We could not say exactly if the next hurricane or storm that forms in the Atlantic is going to reach Spain right now, but if we continue with the current patterns of ocean heating and wind changes, it will happen. Sadly it is one of the effects of climate change. P. At least technological advances allow them to be predicted earlier…R. Well, the truth is that they are getting harder and harder to predict. It is true that we have satellites and meteorological models that are much more advanced and precise when it comes to making a forecast than those that existed ten, 20, 30 or 50 years ago, which was when meteorological models began to be made on the computer. . That allows us to predict a storm formation 7 or 8 days in advance quite accurately, but when it comes to full season forecasting that is getting more and more complicated. Precisely because of climate change, because unexpected things are happening in the atmosphere that did not happen in the past and that are changing this type of phenomenon. This hurricane season, in fact, many more have been forecast than there are…R. Yes, because most of the aspects that are taken into account when forecasting hurricanes right now indicate that we should be experiencing a strong season. However, it is still much lower than normal. Maybe it will be delayed, it has happened before, in the past we have seen seasons that have lasted until December. Or maybe we are experiencing a new situation. We experts are seeing a scientific process live and in full color, and as we’re making discoveries about how climate change and these new conditions are affecting the Atlantic, we’re learning how we can improve those forecasts. What advice would you give to a population like the Spanish that is not used to hurricanes? Look for sources of information that are reliable. In the networks, unfortunately, there are many people who unfortunately are not prepared and perhaps many times what they do is scare people. So it is very important to always look for these sources where they can be properly informed to make the best decision for themselves and their families. And then remind them that climate change is here, we can no longer prevent it because we are seeing its effects. Now we have to adapt and an essential part of adapting is having the knowledge and preparation in case one of these hurricanes comes to touch the place where we live.