ANALYSIS | Putin needs Xi Jinping’s help more than ever after his stumbles in Ukraine

Gazprom will accept payments in yuan 1:08 London (CNN) – In early February, Russian President Vladimir Putin landed in Beijing and received a warm welcome from Chinese leader Xi Jinping as the two strongmen demonstrated their unity in the face of the world at the Winter Olympics. The summit, at which the pair touted their growing ties and criticized NATO expansion, took place three weeks before Putin ordered his tanks into Ukraine. While it is not known if the topic of war came up during their talks, one thing is now clear: seven months later, the invasion has gone anything but as planned. Putin has just suffered perhaps his worst week since the first days of the war, when his troops were defeated in Kyiv and forced to withdraw. Russian President Vladimir Putin with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on November 13, 2019 in Brasilia, Brazil. Ukraine’s reconquest in recent days of more than 6,000 square kilometers (over 2,300 square miles) of territory, more than Russia has captured in all its operations since April, is another humiliating defeat for Putin, who has seen his invasion falters and his list of friends on the world stage is reduced. Criticism of Putin is growing even among his supporters in Russia and, bluntly, he could use a victory. Fortunately for Putin, an opportunity presents itself on Thursday, when he holds his first face-to-face meeting with Xi since the invasion began, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan. Much is made of the relationship between Russia and China, which has only grown stronger since the beginning of the war. Experts say Putin is likely to count on Beijing more than ever after his battlefield setbacks. “Russia depends on China to show the world that its strong bond is a symbol of failed international isolation, despite severe Western sanctions,” said Velina Tchakarova, director of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy in Vienna. At a time when the West’s resolve against Russia appears to be hardening, and as more nations join NATO and provide assistance to Ukraine the longer the war lasts, support from the world’s most powerful anti-Western nation would naturally be of great value to Putin. “China’s backing helps Moscow spread Russian narratives, like blaming EU sanctions for the food crisis, blaming NATO for starting the war. It creates a common denominator: dissatisfaction with the West led by The United States and the positive case for closer ties with China,” Tchakarova said. Russia has spoken out about supporting China in recent days. Last week, China’s top legislator Li Zhanshu met with the chairman of the Russian State Duma and other Russian lawmakers in Moscow. Strengthening China under Xi Jinping 5:28 According to the Duma, Li said that “China understands and supports Russia on issues that represent its vital interests, in particular on the situation in Ukraine… We see that the United States and its NATO allies are expanding their presence near Russia’s borders, seriously threatening national security and the lives of Russian citizens.” However, these quotes were not present in the Chinese statement about the meeting, which raises the question of how formally China is ready to support Russia as its invasion of Ukraine shows no signs of ending.”Obviously China does not want Russia to fall apart and in an ideal world would prefer stable leadership from Putin over anything else,” he said. Kerry Brown, professor of Chinese studies at King’s College London, however, added that “Ukraine will be an unwanted problem that Beijing would rather see go away. Of course, China does not trust NATO or the West, but that does not mean that it is Russia’s best friend. Ultimately, China has its own interests, and this instability is not helping China in any obvious way.” Viewing China’s support for Russia to date through the lens of self-interest might give some indication of where China’s thinking is. Beijing, especially in the run-up to next month’s important political meeting in Beijing, where Xi is widely expected to assume a third term in power, cementing his role as China’s most powerful leader in decades. countries grew during the first six months of 2022, despite the war.China agreed last week to start paying for Russian gas in yuan and rubles instead of dollars, avoiding many of the sanctions in place on Russian energy exports. economic support, combined with blaming NATO and the West for the war, is in China’s interest.However, what experts say is less likely to be in China’s interest is It would provide the military assistance that Russia seems to need as the war progresses. Ukraine’s advances over the weekend, international sanctions, export controls and strategic mistakes by Moscow have made it clear that Russia may have a military supply problem. Last week, a US official told CNN that Putin was in the process of buying millions of rockets and artillery shells from North Korea. “It doesn’t mean supplies are necessarily close to exhaustion, but they could be crossing the line into contingency stocks for a broader and/or future conflict,” Joseph Dempsey, a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN. “Even if the conflict ends today, it could take many years to recover what has been lost in Ukraine.” As welcome as China’s money is in Moscow, the longer the war drags on, the more pressing Russia’s shortages could become. Export controls make it difficult to import weapons, along with the tools to make them. And for the kind of equipment Russia needs, there are a finite number of sources. If China is not going to help, Russia’s options are further reduced. Russia’s potential desperation, says Dempsey, risks creating another complication. “Of course, a broader concern about arms supplies to Russia is what an increasingly desperate Russia might be willing to give in return, particularly in the case of Iran and North Korea, the latter of which remains under an embargo. Comprehensive UN Arms Department”. So what can Putin be expected to announce after his meeting with Xi? There will certainly be more engagement with the economic relationship, and China is unlikely to suddenly tone down its rhetoric about the West. But the reality for Putin is that there is little Xi can do to counter the action the West has taken against Russia. And after a week of heavy losses on the battlefield, this must worry the man who once believed his war would be over in a few days.