ANALYSIS | The West celebrates Ukraine’s victories on the battlefield, but they could make the war more dangerous

Ukrainian troops greeted with gifts in newly liberated town 0:39 (CNN) — Ukraine’s stunning recapture of vast swaths of territory controlled by Russia is renewing focus on the most chilling unknown in a war already marked by extreme cruelty: the depths to which a cornered Vladimir Putin could descend. The huge gains made by Ukrainian forces in recent days are a tribute to the bravery of troops fighting for a nation’s survival, an ingenious military strategy, and further proof of the failures of Russia’s once-vaunted armed forces. They also represent a victory for the Western policy of staunch support for the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Kyiv’s progress validates the US strategy of sending billions of dollars worth of arms and ammunition to Ukraine’s forces in what would previously have been an unprecedented modern proxy war in Europe. But they also raise the question of how Putin, who faces embarrassments on the battlefield and signs of rare political pressure at home, might react, recalling fears earlier in the war that he could reach for chemical weapons or even a tactical nuclear device. as a last resort. “I think the Russian regime is in trouble and they have to turn it around,” retired Army Brigadier General General Peter Zwack said on CNN Monday night. “They are being cornered nationally and not internationally, which makes this whole thing very dangerous,” he said. The images of scenes of liberation in Ukraine were viewed with delight in Washington, and as another major twist in a war that has often been unpredictable. “I think it’s a pivotal moment. It really has changed what was otherwise a war of attrition, and it’s clearly given Ukraine an advantage here that gives them momentum at a critical time,” said former CIA director and secretary Defense Officer Leon Panetta on CNN’s “The Lead with Jake Tapper” on Monday. Ukraine’s advance has rapidly recaptured 6,000 square kilometers (about 2,300 square miles) in the east and south of the country, according to the Kyiv government. His troops have been advancing in the northeastern Kharkiv region and have been waging a smaller offensive in the south. In a potentially important political development, Russia’s defeats have made their way into Moscow despite a crush by the independent media. Some television commentators and bloggers have criticized the conduct of the war, and the Kremlin admitted that Putin was aware of events, although he insisted that the “special operation” in Ukraine would be successful. In a show of considerable courage, given Putin’s repressive record, deputies from 18 Russian districts called for his resignation, though it would be unwise to interpret this as a sign of widespread revolt. The surprising developments in Ukraine will offer new opportunities to Western governments eager to further increase pressure on Putin, but they may also require a further recalibration of US military aid and other assistance and a reconsideration of Ukraine’s chances in its bid to oust Moscow troops from all over its territory. The United States says it remains committed to giving Ukraine what it needs to continue the fight against Russia, though that could change after November’s midterm elections if Republicans less willing to support a foreign war win control of Congress. A key question for the US is whether US military aid that first included anti-tank weapons and small arms, and later items like drones and howitzers, may now need to be adjusted again to help Zelensky’s armed forces consolidate control over the newly captured ground and to repel any Russian counterattack. “Now the war is entering a new stage in which the ability to move forces under fire and exploit weaknesses in Russian lines are of paramount importance,” said Rafael Loss, coordinator of Pan-European Data Projects at the European Council on Foreign Relations. . Western leaders could help Ukraine build on successes and liberate more territory with main battle tanks and armored vehicles, Loss said. War diary: what happened today in Ukraine? 1:04 Putin’s dilemma In addition to tactical considerations, Ukraine’s advance through formerly occupied Russian territory raises the question of how Putin, who has invested enormous credibility in a war he has framed as a broader conflict against the West , could react to setbacks. Military analysts have said the Ukrainian troop advances over the weekend are the most significant in the war since Russia abandoned its drive to capture the capital, Kyiv, in the first weeks after the invasion. Basking in the latest Ukrainian victories, Zelensky nearly mocked Putin in a Telegram post directed at Russia on Sunday, asking: “Do you still think we are ‘one nation’? Do you still think you can scare us, break us, force us to make concessions? ?”. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky issues a harsh warning to Russia. But toning down the euphoria in the West is not just the reality that war can be unpredictable and battlefield gains can be reversed. It is the realization that if Russia faces heavy losses that are politically unpalatable to the ruthless Russian leader, Ukrainian victories may simply push the war into a dangerous new phase. The invasion has demonstrated Putin’s indifference to human carnage and the willingness shown earlier in the conflicts in Chechnya and Syria to spread terror over civilians and raze cities. Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed, according to Western intelligence agencies, but Putin has gone on record that his country has lost nothing by the invasion. So it is quite possible that Putin will take the defeats as an encouragement to launch withering attacks on the liberated districts from the air or with artillery and rockets. Another area of ​​potential influence is Russia’s occupation of the Zaporizhia nuclear plant, Europe’s largest, which has prompted international nuclear officials to warn that Moscow is “playing with fire” and risks disaster. Given the importance of the conflict to Putin, Western strategists are also not ruling out the possibility of Russian forces digging deep into defensive lines for a protracted war of attrition that could buy them time to resupply and regroup. There have long been fears in the West about how Putin would react if he appeared to be losing the war in Ukraine, with concerns that he might escalate to the use of chemical weapons. And Western strategists have not ruled out the possibility that Russia could even deploy a limited-yield nuclear weapon in case its troops are on the run, even if the US has said there is no sign of Moscow mobilizing its nuclear arsenal so far. far. Ukraine’s top military officer, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, has warned of the direct threat of Moscow’s use of tactical nuclear weapons, Reuters reported last week. Any deployment of weapons of mass destruction would again jeopardize the kind of escalation between Russia, the world’s biggest nuclear power, and Washington that President Joe Biden has tried at all costs to prevent. The desire to avoid such a scenario led him to dissuade NATO allies in Eastern Europe from sending military aircraft to Ukraine in the belief that Putin might view it as an unacceptable direct intervention in the war by the alliance. Similar questions could arise if the US considers sending tanks or other similar weapons to Ukraine in a new phase of the war. This was experienced by the CNN team when they went to verify what Ukraine says 2:39 Struggling to identify Putin’s red lines The difficulty for the West has always been trying to calculate where Putin’s red lines are. So far they have not crossed. But no one knows if that will change, and Putin has successfully planted a mystique around him that makes it impossible to judge precisely how far he might go. “If he has lines he wouldn’t cross, it’s hard to tell,” said Bradley Woodworth, a Russia expert and associate professor of history at the University of New Haven. “It makes it devilishly difficult, I’m sure, to have a consistent policy when things are so fluid.” “It’s scary as hell. How would we know what their line would be for using tactical nukes?” Even before he takes that step, there will be increasing scrutiny in the coming days in American and Western capitals over Putin’s next step, especially if criticism grows in Moscow. One possibility is that Putin may intensify his own efforts to subject Western publics, and the politicians who lead them, to fierce pressure in the winter months by weaponizing Russia’s vital role as a supplier of energy to Europe. CNN’s Natasha Bertrand, Katie Bo Lillis and Phil Mattingly reported Monday that the White House was already concerned that Russia’s cutting off oil and gas supplies could cause rifts in the Western alliance. The idea that Putin might respond in a less incendiary way, seeking a face-saving way out of the war, is undermined both by the Ukrainian determination to drive the Russians out of all of its territory after an unprovoked invasion and by the complete lack of trust between Moscow and Kyiv, as evidenced by Zelensky’s taunts. This, together with the enormous political capital that Putin has invested in the war, explains the failure so far in building diplomatic outlets for the Russian leader. Still, Panetta argued that with Ukraine’s continued gains and long-term Western support to enable further progress on the battlefield, Putin could end up in a vulnerable position facing a tough election. “That is the strategy that will ultimately force Putin to decide: whether or not he will continue to fight what is a war that he cannot win or whether he will try to negotiate some sort of way out,” he said.