Russia exaggerates China support as it backs down on Ukraine

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, two strong leaders with a special relationship 2:41 Hong Kong (CNN) – As Russian forces suffer a series of stunning defeats in Ukraine, Moscow is exaggerating Beijing’s support for its invasion ahead of a key meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week. Russian troops were forced to flee the strategic city of Izium, their main stronghold in northeastern Ukraine, on Saturday after a swift Ukrainian counteroffensive. It was Moscow’s worst defeat since its withdrawal from Kyiv in March, and a sign the war may be entering a new phase. Over the past week, Ukrainian forces have recaptured more than 3,000 square kilometers of territory, more than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April. Back in Russia, senior Russian and Chinese officials formed a united front to pave the way for a long-awaited meeting between Putin and Xi on the sidelines of a regional summit in Uzbekistan, their first face-to-face meeting since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And according to the Russian Parliament, a senior Chinese leader has expressed explicit support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, claims that are not included in the Chinese side’s statement and run counter to previous efforts by Beijing to maintain a semblance of neutrality. Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, and National People’s Congress Chairman Li Zhanshu, left, attend a plenary session at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia. On Thursday and Friday, China’s top legislator Li Zhanshu, a close Xi ally and the third leader of the Chinese Communist Party, met with Russian State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin and other Russian lawmakers in Moscow after attending an economic forum in the eastern city of Vladivostok. According to a State Duma statement, Li assured its members that “China understands and supports Russia on issues that represent its vital interests, in particular on the situation in Ukraine.” “We see that the United States and its NATO allies are expanding their presence near Russian borders, seriously threatening national security and the lives of Russian citizens. We fully understand the need for all measures taken by Russia to protect its key interests. , we are providing our assistance,” Li was quoted as saying. “On the Ukraine issue, we see how Russia has been put in an impossible situation. And in this case, Russia made an important decision and responded firmly,” he added. Beijing has steadfastly refused to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, or even refer to it as a “war”. Instead, he has repeatedly blamed NATO and the United States for the conflict. But previously, Chinese officials did not publicly endorse the “necessity” of Russia’s invasion, nor did they admit that Beijing was “providing assistance.” That unambiguous supporting language is missing from the Chinese reading of the meetings. In fact, in the Chinese version, Li is not quoted as making any reference to Ukraine. According to the official Xinhua news agency, Li expressed China’s willingness to “continue to work with Russia to firmly support each other on issues relating to each other’s core interests and major concerns.” Li also criticized the sanctions against Russia and called for more cooperation with Moscow in “fighting foreign interference, sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction,” according to Xinhua. While it is not uncommon for China to omit the content of high-level meetings from its official readings, the significant discrepancy between the Beijing and Moscow statements has drawn the attention of experts. “The Russian version went much further than any Chinese version. If they didn’t clear this up with Beijing, that could really piss some off in Beijing,” wrote Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Energy Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. US suffers setback in hypersonic arms race 0:46 Bad news for China? Moscow and Beijing have become closer partners in recent years as both face tensions with the West, with Xi and Putin declaring the two countries had a “no-limits” partnership weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But Russia’s recent setbacks in Ukraine could create a serious dilemma for China, just weeks before, as is widely expected, Xi secures a norm-shattering third term in power at a key Communist Party meeting. “Beijing cannot sit back and watch Russia defeated in Ukraine, because that will (at a minimum) lead to a severely weakened Russia that is a less useful ally and less able to distract Washington, and (at a maximum) could create instability in Moscow.” Hal Brands, professor of global affairs at Johns Hopkins University, wrote on Twitter. At one extreme, Brands added, political instability in Moscow could create instability within the “strategic partnership” in which Xi has invested so heavily. “You can bet that as Russia’s position deteriorates, Putin will seek more Chinese support. If Beijing doesn’t find a way to provide such support, we could see further strains in the Sino-Russian partnership sooner than many imagined.” analysts,” he wrote. It is questionable to what extent China is willing to support Russia at the expense of its own interests and strategic goals. So far, Beijing has provided no direct military or financial aid to Moscow that could trigger sanctions from Washington. Some experts see the growing China-Russia relationship primarily pragmatic, based on cost-benefit calculations that can easily change. “The China-Russia relationship is not based on ‘shared values’ or a sense of respect/affection… It is primarily based on interests. And interests can change rapidly as dynamics change,” wrote Hart, the expert. of CSIS. “This doesn’t mean that the China-Russia relationship is weak. It just doesn’t necessarily last,” he added.