The war in Ukraine seems stalled: what could happen now?

The father of the woman accused of killing Darya Dugina speaks 0:45 (CNN Spanish) — Since February 2022 the world has been closely watching and has been horrified by the fighting that is sweeping Ukraine in a war that seems stalled, seen on social networks the tanks advancing through the fields and through the forests while planes loaded with bombs cross the sky, and the destroyed cities and the thousands of refugees escaping from the trenches and the craters left by the artillery. The war is not over and it is not yet clear how much longer the most important armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War will last. This Wednesday, Ukraine’s independence day, marks exactly half a year since the first shots were fired. What can we expect for the rest of the year, before the arrival of the dreaded winter in the northern hemisphere? A Stalemate War The war in Ukraine has gone through many phases since it began in late February. Here you can read more about the causes of this conflict, which Moscow initially described as a “special operation” aimed at protecting the pro-Russian rebels in Donbas and demilitarizing Ukraine, and which the West has condemned as a war of aggression. A Ukrainian serviceman builds a trench at a position near Kharkiv on July 5, 2022, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Credit: SERGEY BOBOK/AFP via Getty Images) It began with a full-scale Russian invasion on three major fronts: in the north, towards the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and the city of Kharkiv; in the east, in the Donbas region in support of the People’s Republics raised in 2014 with the support of Moscow; and in the south, where Russian troops left Crimea – annexed in 2014 and still claimed by Ukraine – and launched an offensive on the Ukrainian coasts on the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​​​Azov. The offensive on Kyiv and Kharkiv were unsuccessful, amid strong Ukrainian resistance, and the Russian troops withdrew. In the south, however, Russia captured numerous major cities, including Kherson, Melitopol, and Mariupol, and completed the land corridor it sought between Crimea and Donbas. After these initial successes, he halted his advance and consolidated his gains. Thus, the focus of the war moved to Donbas in April: Russia concentrated its forces in this region, which has been at war for eight years and is home to the most important Ukrainian fortifications. Fighting there has consequently been focused on artillery and trenches, and Moscow’s advances have been slow. Since then the war seems to be at a standstill, without major movements or captures of cities like those seen in the initial months, and with the focus now on a conflict of attrition in the east, while Russia survives the important sanctions imposed by the West. Six months have passed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: what is the balance? 2:16 “Decision-makers in the West seem to have reached a consensus on the war in Ukraine: The conflict will settle into a prolonged stalemate, and eventually a weakened Russia will agree to a peace deal that favors the United States and its allies from NATO, as well as Ukraine,” John Mearsheimer, one of America’s most influential international relations specialists, wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine. “Washington and her allies are being too arrogant,” he added. For Mearsheimer, Washington and Moscow have raised their ambitions considerably since the start of the war, and both are committed to winning the conflict. This would mean that there is little chance that both sides will reach an agreement that means making concessions, which will contribute to the continued stalemate of the war. But it also increases the chances of a dangerous escalation. In the midst of these events, Ukraine sank the Russian missile cruiser Moskva, which was supporting Russian operations from the Black Sea, the West has not ceased its shipments of modern weapons to Ukrainian troops, and Russia has continued to bombard Ukrainian facilities far behind. from the front lines. Both sides have suffered heavy losses, although estimating the actual numbers is difficult. More recently, Darya Dugina, the daughter of an influential Russian philosopher close to Vladimir Putin and a promoter of the war, was assassinated in Moscow on Sunday. It is not yet clear who carried out the attack. Steven Pifer, an analyst at the Brookings Institute, stressed at the beginning of the month that this “is not a propitious moment for negotiations”, given that Russia’s objectives – Ukrainian neutrality, recognition of the rebels in Donbas and the annexation of Crimea, among others — are still in force and practically mean the total capitulation of Ukraine. Furthermore, Kyiv has no incentive to believe in a lasting ceasefire with Moscow, given its experiences in 2014 and 2015. Daniel Treisman, a professor of political science at the University of California, said Tuesday in an opinion piece on CNN that ” “One last lesson is one that the West can no longer avoid. Putin’s aggression on Ukraine has removed any last doubts that we are in a new Cold War. It will take a lot of skill to keep it from heating up.” This is the new reality of the Ukrainian soldiers wounded in the war 3:00 “The West has not yet understood what it will cost to defend itself against China, Russia and other emerging threats,” he added. Signs of a Ukrainian counter-offensive For weeks, there have been reports of possible offensive operations by Ukraine in the south of the country, and preliminary attacks on Russian positions in occupied territory. Andrii Yusov, a spokesman for Defense Intelligence at the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said last week that “in the near future, there will be very important events on the entire front.” “It is not about being tied to any date, however, we have to consider [el] factor of Ukraine’s Independence Day,” Yusov said on August 24, which coincides with six months since the start of the war. The start of a major Ukrainian ground operation has yet to be seen. But his forces say they are slowly retaking territory around Kherson, and Russian troops are there on the defensive, unlike in the east.Ukraine also says it has been carrying out attacks on ammunition depots, bridges and supply lines on this front, actions that usually precede an offensive.Kyiv has also said that advanced weapons sent by the West, such as the US HIMARS multiple missile launcher system, have been used to carry out some of these attacks.
A picture taken on July 21, 2022 shows a car passing through a crater on Kherson’s Antonovsky Bridge, caused by the impact of a Ukrainian rocket. (Credit: STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images) “Our aircraft carried out two strikes against a redoubt, a concentration of personnel, weapons and equipment in the Oleksandrivka and Burkhanivka areas,” Operational Command South said in a statement on Monday. These areas are located in the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. There have also been several explosions at Russian military installations behind the front lines that have yet to be attributed, such as the one at the Saki airbase in Crimea. Russia could retake the initiative in the war Beyond the signs of a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, Russia continues to attack and advance, also slowly, on the stalled Donbas front in the east. And it could escalate its attacks on Ukraine, whether it be bombings or an attack on Odessa, the Ukrainian city threatened at the beginning of the war but ultimately not assaulted. The US embassy in Ukraine on Tuesday issued a warning to US citizens there, urging them to leave the country because of the growing danger of a new wave of Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure and government institutions deep within the country. Since the start of the war, Russia has used its warplanes and ballistic missiles to hit targets almost everywhere in Ukraine, beyond the front lines where its troops are fighting. Kyiv is regularly bombed, and cities like Lviv in the west have also been hit. Missile hits wine warehouse in Kyiv and company tries to save business 2:48 “The US Embassy urges US citizens to leave Ukraine now using privately available ground transportation options if it is safe to do so. The security situation throughout Ukraine is highly volatile and conditions can deteriorate without warning,” the statement said. Ukrainian President Volodymy Zelensky also warned that Russia might try to attack precisely on August 24 and on the occasion of Ukraine’s independence day. Ukraine, a former socialist republic with a long history of subjugation by Russia, finally became independent on August 24, 1991, the year in which the Soviet Union of which it was a part would finally collapse. Since then, relations between Russia, legal heir to the USSR, and Ukraine have been extremely difficult. “The threat to Russia today is even greater than it was before the war, mainly because the Biden administration is now determined to roll back Russia’s territorial gains and permanently curb its power. Moscow cannot afford to lose in Ukraine and will use all available means.” to avoid defeat,” wrote Mearsheimer. The dreaded arrival of winter in Ukraine The war between Ukraine and Russia has had a strong impact on the global economy, and has been especially hard on the countries of Europe. Russia is one of the main global exporters of oil and gas, and Europe is its main buyer. Russia is also one of the main exporters of grains, especially wheat, as is Ukraine, and the war has also affected food prices around the world. More extensive fighting expected in Ukraine 0:38 In late July Ukraine and Russia reached an agreement, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, to allow the export of Ukrainian grain through secure naval corridors in the Black Sea. The first ships began transporting cereals in August, and it is hoped that the measure could help avoid a catastrophic food crisis, as the UN warns, but its effects remain to be seen. On the energy side, oil and gas prices remain high, and Russia’s gas supplies to Europe have been shrinking because of the war. In December the northern hemisphere will officially enter winter, and there is great concern about the impact this will have on Europe. The European winter, marked by low temperatures and heavy snowfall, may contribute to further stagnation of the war conflict, since such climatic conditions tend to slow down military ground operations. “The West is in for a painful reckoning in the next six months,” Treisman wrote. “The unity of the West around Ukraine in the spring was impressive. The challenge now will be to maintain that cohesion during a winter in which gas supplies will be dwindling.” With information from Oleksandra Ochman, Vasco Cotovio, Brad Lendon, Lauren Said-Moorhouse, Angus Watson, Ivan Watson, Olha Konovalova, Dan Hodge, and Tim Lister.