Ukraine celebrates six months of horror: from an unfinished conflict to an invasion that puts Europe in check

Six months that seem like an eternity. Six months that are actually the beginning of a war that has become entrenched, or has actually been entrenched for many years, although attention has been diverted. An invasion launched by Vladimir Putin that adds another chapter to eight years of war. More than 180 days of horror for Ukraine. A time that, after all, has served Moscow to put Europe in check and make it rethink the entire global model, with NATO going from “brain death” to seeing itself stronger than ever. Six months that, behind the theoretical, have been a succession of destruction, death, fear and flight. From the first moment, almost nobody expected a short-range, rapid conflict that would fulfill Putin’s designs. Perhaps only the Russian president himself. Instead, the war has stalled and the fronts are constantly shifting. Now Moscow is focusing on Donbas, with Kherson and Zaporizhia as the main targets and with Europe’s largest nuclear power plant as the most relevant danger. On the other side, kyiv is trying to turn around by undermining the Kremlin’s capabilities in Crimea and with the occasional offensive in the east as well. The peninsula, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, is the jewel in the crown for Volodimir Zelensky. The war “began there” and must “end there”. But the key now is that between the stagnation and the shifts in strategies, the clash can be prolonged over time, with the fatigue that this would entail, especially in the case of the West, which is suffering the indirect consequences of the invasion. All of it is a story with various chapters that overlap: the murder of the daughter of the ultraconservative philosopher Aleksandr Dugin adds more gasoline to a fire that is far from going out. On average, every day there are about five child victims, adding a total of 972 -362 dead and 610 injured- for almost six months, according to the United Nations Office for Human Rights. “And these are only the figures that the UN has been able to verify. We believe the real number is much higher,” said UNICEF director Catherine Russell. In addition, around 16% of that figure are minors who had not even reached the age of five. In addition, the number of refugees now exceeds 10 million, according to the latest data from the United Nations. Regarding the deaths, each side gives its own data and over the weeks these figures have become less reliable. So, what can happen from now on? Álvaro de Argüelles, an analyst at El Orden Mundial, explains to 20minutes that the Russian army “is having supply problems and it is clear that it is feeling the wear and tear of the war. And it is also staying no fighters.” Putin is trying to supply this “mainly through the Wagner group, which is recruiting in disadvantaged areas of Russia and also with the prison population and with recruits in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.” Of course, the analyst points out that Ukraine “obviously also feels wear and tear, no matter how much Western aid is favoring it.” The feeling is that Moscow’s objective now is to consolidate control of the territories that it has already taken, Argüelles maintains that “it is always the defensive position is more comfortable than the offensive one” and Russia “in the last month or month and a half has not been making great progress”. In this way, he says, “the feeling is that Moscow’s objective now is to consolidate control of the territories it has already taken, for example through a referendum and in general to wait for how the situation evolves in the winter months, especially to see if Western support for Ukraine decreases over time.” For its part, kyiv continues to receive weapons, especially from the United States. It is “attacking some Russian points” and forcing Moscow to bring troops “to the front line, thus slowing down their advance.” The conflict navigates “between what military logic dictates and what political logic dictates.” kyiv could gain the ability to attack Crimea and losing this territory “would be a big defeat for Russia.” Argüelles does not see that there is going to be “a great offensive as such”, but that kyiv’s goal is to “put the Russians in such an uncomfortable situation that they are the ones who are forced to withdraw, as was seen in the north of Ukraine a few months ago”. The West assumes that the conflict will be long. Meanwhile, the European Union and the United States, as well as the rest of the allies, are gradually left without room for maneuver after a few months that have served to completely resurrect NATO . The West is trying to adapt to an order that is moving towards bilaterality. Washington continues to send aid packages to Ukraine, but Joe Biden is heading towards legislative elections that could mark his future, and he could begin to prioritize the national key. The White House also looks again with concern at China’s movements. Beijing, aligned with Russia, rises as another problem for the US, which has had it as its main strategic rival in recent years. Good proof of this is that the Asian giant appears, with light and stenographers, as the main strategic opponent for the Atlantic Alliance. These dynamics could lead to a disengagement from the West if the war in Ukraine continues to drag on. Meanwhile, Turkey wants to continue playing the role of mediator and Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s latest messages could not be clearer: the conflict has to end at the negotiating table. Zelensky does not pick up the gauntlet and conditions any diplomatic advance on Russia “withdrawing all its troops” from Ukrainian territory. The ‘conversations’ continue to take place on the battlefield and progress has been made at the level of grain exports, since the food crisis has been (and is) another of the great global threats derived from the invasion. Istanbul plays both sides without sanctioning Russia and at the same time reaching out to kyiv. “Turkey is on Ukraine’s side,” Erdogan said after meeting with Zelenski, trying to clear up any doubts. The Ottoman country, yes, launches a warning. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said several member countries of the Atlantic Alliance, not just the United States, want the war between Russia and Ukraine to continue. “There are those who wanted to sabotage the grain agreement. But it is not the United States. The contribution has been the elimination of restrictions on the export of Russian fertilizers, the unblocking of ports, (the elimination of restrictions) on banking operations,” he concluded, leaving a shadow of doubt over the rest of the allies. Among all the amalgamation, it is the EU that is looking for its space. Throughout these six months, the 27 have approved six packages of sanctions against Russia, including partial blockades of both coal and oil. But they have stalled. It seems that the seventh will take time to arrive and while countries like Germany get rid of Russian energy dependence, the Union continues to search for alternative ways. One of them may be the MidCat, a gas pipeline that would connect the Iberian Peninsula with the rest of Europe. Spain wants it, Berlin needs it, but France is not up to the task. With the risk that the consensus may be broken, the debate between the partners is now turning to a possible brake on tourist visas for Russian citizens, but this has also become a thorny issue: the Baltics press for the decision to be taken measure, but neither the big countries nor Brussels seem to accept the step. Josep Borrell, for example, sees it as ineffective and unnecessary. What the High Representative does open the door to is to send a training mission for the Ukrainian army, as the EU is already doing in 17 other countries. This matter will be addressed in Prague next Monday without the 27 having spoken yet. There is still room for maneuver if we take into account that the EU has adopted a gradual approach with sanctionsIn this sense, Guillermo Íñiguez, doctoral candidate at the University of Oxford and specialist in European Law maintains that “there is still room for maneuver if we take into account that the EU has adopted a gradual approach. In no package has the entire arsenal been launched. They have been highly calculated measures to harm specific sectors of the economy Russian”. These measures “can be intensified” in the short and medium term, he adds. “It can be done by approving successive packages or a single package that is broader”, especially for example “if energy reserves are reached in the fall”. This, yes, will depend “on the alliances that occur between the Member States and the movements of the Commission.” Precisely regarding the veto of visas for Russian tourists, Íñiguez explains that “it is a measure that is perfectly contemplable by the Treaties and can be a desirable sanction if it is intended that the Russian population feel the pressure of the war. It is naive to think that there is no support of the Russian citizenry for Putin with the war”. Thus, “a sanction on tourists would avoid the problem that a generalized sanction can be unfair” and it must be remembered “that Russian tourism that comes to Europe is the richest”. In the end it is “one more variant” of the pressure on the oligarchy.