They develop a method to predict the origin of the next pandemics – National Geographic

Enjoy 3 FREE National Geographic magazines and be part of the movement for a more sustainable world. MORE INFO Enjoy our special editions at a single price for being a subscriber. DISCOVER THEM The arrival of COVID-19 changed societies as they were known on a global scale. The planet was forced to stop, economies faltered, and citizens suffered the consequences of a virus, SARS-CoV-2, which left an indelible mark on the collective imagination. Science, once it overcame the first challenge by developing vaccines that would mitigate the effects of this disease, was forced to continue investigating. The ravages caused by COVID-19 set off the alarms and, now, foresight has come to play a role protagonist in laboratories and research centers around the world. In an increasingly interconnected planet where viruses emerge and reach the other side of the Earth in a matter of days, detecting cases of each new pathogen early is crucial. Identify the areas where these zoonoses could occur even more. That is why a research team has just published a promising study in the scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences with a completely new approach: although previous studies had already investigated how environmental, phylogenetic and geographical variables determined the infection of numerous pathogens, until now none had developed a method applicable to a large number of systems in which this relationship between pathogen and host is created. Artificial intelligence applied to researchIn the study, The researchers provide an approach based on artificial intelligence, specifically through machine learning, which can integrate a large number of variables and be applied to any relationship system between pathogen and host. That is why these results not only agree with the data from each analyzed system, but also provide this new tool that can help discover potential host species and new “hot spots” in the planetary geography where this interaction between pathogen and species. Although previous studies had already investigated how the variables influenced the infection of numerous pathogens, none had developed a method applicable to a large number of systems. Ángel Luis Robles Fernández, from the Universidad Veracruzana de México and one of the authors of the study, explains the methodology in an email interview with National Geographic Spain: “This method only uses a proportion of the information because we start from the assumption that the observed interactions have the same nature and are explained by the same variables, so the species with which more information is available are taken as a starting point. ón”.”This amount of information (about 80% of the records) is accumulated in only 20% of the species. So with this we ensure that the statistical signal that we use to predict the variables (phylogenetic, environmental and geographic distances between hosts) has predictive power and statistical certainty,” says Robles. Based on artificial intelligence, the method analyzes where pandemics could emerge from the Photo: iStock Predictions Point to EurasiaTogether with Andrés Lira-Noriega, Researcher at the Advanced Molecular Studies Network, and Diego Santiago-Alarcón, Professor at the University of South Florida, the authors applied the model to three relationship systems between pathogens and hosts: coronaviruses and bats, as well as West Nile virus and malaria with birds.Their results suggest that transmission of avian malaria depends largely on the distance between hosts, while transmission of coronaviruses among bats is mainly affected by the geographic distribution between species. e, West Nile virus transmission is greatly influenced by a combination of environmental, geographic, and phylogenetic factors. “We are working on modeling different parasite-host systems, but we are also studying whether we can model other biological interactions, not only host parasite, but in general predict biological interactions,” adds Robles. From this information, the researchers identified numerous hot spots around the world, detailing how the Eurasia region is particularly susceptible to these interactions with the pathogens of avian malaria (caused by Plasmodium relictum) and West Nile virus. More information Monkeypox declared a Public Health Emergency of International Importance by the WHO