Ukraine: what would an official declaration of war by Putin change? – BFM TV

In conflict with Ukraine since February 24, Russia has never officially declared war on its neighbor. A change in terminology, possible on the occasion of the symbolic date of May 9, would have serious consequences. A war, for what? While Westerners are wondering about a possible announcement by Vladimir Putin of an entry into war with Ukraine on May 9, the date of the capitulation of Nazi Germany in 1945, what would this announcement change? Because if Russia and Ukraine have been in conflict since February 24, Moscow has so far made no official declaration of war on its neighbor. An announcement along these lines would therefore tip the conflict into a new phase. “General mobilization” Will May 9 mark a new stage in the Russian invasion of Ukraine? If the question remains open, a declaration of war by Vladimir Putin constitutes an act recognized in international law. Such an announcement would first allow Vladimir Putin to launch a “general mobilization” among the Russian population in order to fight against the Ukrainians, says Colonel Michel Goya, defense consultant for BFMTV. The consultant points out that so far, if Russians are well engaged militarily on the ground, they are only “volunteers”. Russia “cannot hire conscripts” as long as it is not officially at war, he specifies. Michel Goya is however cautious about the immediate contribution of such a mobilization. “On paper, there are two million reservists who can be mobilized in the event of war. In reality, of these two million, there are none who are trained, trained and the reserve stocks are in a deplorable state”, estimates- There is no official human toll, but some Western sources report up to 12,000 Russian soldiers killed since the start of the conflict, while NATO speaks of 7,000 to 15,000 men killed on the Russian side. Significant losses for Moscow, which may need new arms. War Economy Launching a war would also allow Russia to enter a war economy. “We don’t know what the state of (Vladimir Putin’s) means at the moment, but he has already lost a lot. (Going to war) could help him,” said Sylvie Bermann, BFMTV diplomacy consultant, former French ambassador. in Russia.Indeed, the war economy would allow the Russian head of state to take control of the management of economic resources and to mobilize them as a priority to finance the war effort.Patrick Sauce, specialist in international relations for BFMTV, recalls in this respect that at least 125 missiles have already been fired since the start of the conflict, a trend now downwards. Launching a war economy would probably allow Moscow to finance, among other things, more missiles. A declaration of war would also allow Russia to mobilize its allies more strongly, in particular via the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) created in 2002 and of which Moscow is a part. The politico-military organization of which Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Armenia are also members, indeed provides in article 4 that in the event of aggression by one of the members, the others must to come to its aid militarily. A change in the “narrative framework of the Kremlin”? Declaring war would not, however, be insignificant for Moscow, which until now has been striving to speak of a special operation or an external operation when it evokes the fighting with Ukraine. “Is it of political interest? I’m not sure”, even wonders Sylvie Bermann, diplomacy consultant for BFMTV. “It would change the whole narrative of the Kremlin”, underlines with CNN Oleg Ignatov, analyst at the International Crisis Group, an NGO dedicated to preventing and resolving deadly conflicts. The expert believes that by talking about war, Russia would come to publicly acknowledge its difficulties in Ukraine. The announcement could also have negative consequences on Russian popular support in the conflict. Many civilians approve of the operation, but do not want to go to the front, says Oleg Ignatov. Despite speculation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov assured that Moscow was not seeking to end the conflict in Ukraine at this date.