Delta variant and Covid fourth wave, what the experts say

As the Delta variant runs around the world, fears of a fourth wave grow. The variant is now reported in 124 countries, territories or areas globally, 13 more in 7 days, the World Health Organization reported in its weekly report on the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic. Read also “We are in the fourth wave. This variant exists, it is in the majority and it is much more contagious”, said French Prime Minister Jean Castex. In France in 24 hours there were 21,000 new cases and another 22 deaths. The United Kingdom recorded 44,104 new coronavirus infections, thanks to the Delta variant, and another 73 deaths, according to data from the latest bulletin. The total number of new cases over the past week rose 35.8% compared to the previous seven days while deaths rose 59%. Covid hospital admissions reached record highs in the last 5 months. According to data updated to July 19, 752 patients have entered the hospital, an increase of 21% compared to the previous week. We have to go back to February 25 to find similar figures. In any case, the peak of 4,134 hospitalizations of last January 12 remains very far away, but what is the situation in Italy? Yesterday in our country 4,259 new infections and 21 deaths were recorded, with the positivity rate rising to 1.8%. The Delta variant “I fear it will grow like the United Kingdom, I don’t see why Italy should have fewer cases” declared the Undersecretary of Health, Pierpaolo Sileri. Andrea Crisanti, director of the Department of Molecular Medicine at the University of Padua, invited us to watch what is happening in England. “If you look at what happened in England, which in my opinion is an anticipation of what will happen in Italy, also considering the fact that the protection rate of the Italian population is lower than that of England, it is not that we need a divination art to understand what will happen in Italy. It is written in the graph of England “said Crisanti.” In the space of 40 days England has gone from a thousand cases to 50 thousand “per day, the virologist stressed. And it is only “partially true”, he warned, that there are no repercussions on hospitalizations and deaths. “England went from 2-3 deaths to 50 deaths a day and from 500 hospitalizations to 2,500, on the rise.” So beware of “a narrative that is false – he warned – With this number of cases, without vaccine, England would easily have 700-800 deaths a day. 100 deaths a day “. Alessandro Vergallo, national president of the Italian hospital anesthetists association (Aaroi-Emac), explained that” we are also facing the initial foot of a fourth wave “of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy, highlighting that “over 85% of those who develop a serious disease and risk going to resuscitation are unvaccinated or have had only one dose shortly after the infection”. This last wave “will be different from the others we have experienced, above all because we have vaccinated half of the Italians – he recalled – and we must take this into account. But we do not know how much the diffusion of variants will be able to overcome the protective factor given by vaccines”.