Covid and Delta variant, Gimbe report: “+ 61% infections in a week”

A 61.4% increase in infections in one week. The independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation, on the progress of the Covid epidemic in Italy, notes in the week from 7 to 13 July, compared to the previous one, “an increase of 61.4% of new cases (8,989 against 5,571); on the other hand, deaths are decreasing (104 versus 162), currently positive cases (40,649 versus 42,579), people in home isolation (39,364 versus 41,121), hospitalizations with symptoms (1,128 versus 1,271) and intensive care (157 versus 187) “. “On the front of new cases – says Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation – there is a net weekly increase, however underestimated by a continuously decreasing testing activity, which makes it impossible to trace the contacts adequately”. Since the beginning of May, the number of people tested weekly “has in fact progressively decreased by 56.3%, going from 662,549 to 289,869”, highlights the report. In the week 7-13 July in all regions, with the exception of Basilicata and Valle D’Aosta, “there was a percentage increase in new cases compared to the previous week due to the progressive spread of the Delta variant”. Deaths “instead continue to drop, reaching 104 in the last week with an average of 15 per day compared to 24 in the previous week”, Gimbe observes. “As already predicted 3 weeks ago – comments Cartabellotta – the wait-and-see strategy to face the circulation of the Delta variant did not work and now it is necessary to stem the consequences of the increase in infections by accelerating the complete vaccination coverage of the over 60 and frail. If virtuous behavior remains fundamental to limit the circulation of the virus, the use of the Green pass on Although desirable, the French model for access to bars, restaurants and other activities is not very applicable in the short term due to various obstacles that should be faced and removed “. Taking into account the progressive increase in cases and the spread of the Sars Delta variant- CoV-2, which is destined to become prevalent, “in our country the Achilles heel continues to be represented by over 4.7 7 million over 60s at risk of serious illness not covered by the double dose of vaccine: of these, 2.22 million (12.4%) have not yet received even a dose of vaccine, with significant regional differences (from 21.8 % of Sicily to 7.2% of Puglia), while 2.55 million (14.2%) must complete the cycle after the first dose (1,856,129 with AstraZeneca, 596,190 with Pfizer-BioNTech, 96,503 with Moderna) “, the monitoring also notes. “The increase in infections will lead to an increase in hospitalizations and deaths, evident respectively not earlier than 2 and 4 weeks, the entity of which will be inversely proportional to the complete vaccination coverage of the population, in particular those over 60 and frail. In other words, even with a high viral circulation, the impact of infections on health services will be lower than in previous waves “, the report again indicates.” But with the progressive ‘sunset’ of adenoviral vector vaccines and the CureVac flop – we read – the vaccination campaign will only be able to count on mRna vaccines which, according to the latest estimates, should reach 45.5 million doses in the third quarter. Finally, the collapse in the number of first doses follows both the need to complete the vaccination cycles, which in fact imposed a slowdown in bookings, and the vaccination hesitation of the over 50s, especially in the 50-59 and 60-69 age groups where the number of first doses administered weekly is decreasing “.