Covid Italia, “avoid fourth wave, 11 thousand cases risk at the end of August”

In Italy struggling with the coronavirus and the international alert for Delta variant infections, the risk – without tracking and monitoring – is that of “reaching a number of cases by August 30 that could fluctuate between 8 thousand and 11 thousand “. A fourth wave, in short, that the government is trying to stem by vaccinating as many people as possible and increasing swabs. This is the strategy for the executive’s summer according to Corriere della Sera, which reports a study available to the government with a photograph of the situation to try to understand how “to best use the time advantage of about two months compared to other countries” on the Delta variant and which “brakes on the slackening already foreseen to avoid repeating the mistakes made last summer”. Read also The study, explains Corsera, “monitors the evolution of the pandemic by comparing it with what is happening in other countries. In particular with Great Britain, where the Delta has already had a peak. The analysis predicts that – without monitoring and adequate tracing – in Italy at the end of July we could reach 3,000 new positives every day to reach a number of cases that could fluctuate between 8,000 and 11,000 by 30 August. A new wave, which could coincide with the resumption of normal life after the summer holidays and the restart of school. A wave that would not have the same, very serious consequences of the previous ones precisely because ‘the vaccine represents an effective barrier to the worst effects of Covid-19 which, while continuing to circulate, is significantly weakened ‘. But it would still bring heavy effects. “Again according to the study cited by Corsera, the concern of scientists inspires the choices of the government. o and the prospect of new ‘large numbers’ on infections with consequent distress of the hospitals would mean that “also for this reason the indoor masks will not be eliminated and the discos will have to wait a little longer”. The confidential report, explains Corriere della Sera, ” confirms ‘the particularly positive moment that allows easy contact tracing’. But it highlights’ a continuous decline in buffers which brings down the new positives identified ». Not only. In the first week of July “there was an increase of new cases equal to 13% despite the progress of the vaccination campaign”. According to experts, effective tracking involves carrying out at least 200,000 tests in order not to underestimate ‘the increase that will take place in the coming weeks’ “. The real risk, Corsera underlines, today” concerns the youngest: the analysis of the data shows in fact that ‘virulence mostly affects the age group between 12 and 24 and even more so those under 12 who cannot be vaccinated’. The danger derives from the fact that in these cases ‘the virus presents itself in a mild or asymptomatic form’. And this – underlines the newspaper – increases the danger of transmission within the family “.