French growth is set to decline more than expected due to the war in Ukraine – Actu Orange

AFP, published on Tuesday April 12, 2022 at 9:02 p.m. French growth should slow down more than expected in the first quarter of 2022, to 0.25%, the war in Ukraine already clearly penalizing several industrial sectors, the Banque de France estimated on Tuesday. French central bank lowered its previous growth forecast which was 0.5%, when INSEE was still counting in mid-March on an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.3% in the first quarter. its pre-crisis level during the third quarter of 2021, earlier than the European average, GDP (gross domestic product) should continue to grow”, in the first quarter of 2022, but in a “more moderate way, due to the environment international”, estimates the Banque de France in its monthly economic survey. In the last quarter of 2021, GDP had increased by 0.7%. This slowdown in the French economy seems to confirm that growth over the year will be well below the 4% initially forecast by the government, and the Minister of the Economy. Bruno Le Maire has already indicated that the government will revise its forecast soon. purchase should have fallen by 1.4% due to inflation. This is an element of concern for French growth, consumption being traditionally its main driver.” The month of March was marked by the war in Ukraine, the first consequences of which are felt on the French economy. Faced with the resurgence of the Covid-19 epidemic, China has reintroduced containment measures in certain regions, which may have increased supply difficulties”, companies, also explains the French central bank after having questioned more than 8,000 companies for its survey.- “Slippery road” – “The shock is much less brutal than the Covid shock of two years ago, but it could last longer and affect our growth and employment”, warned the Governor of the Banque de France François Villeroy de Galhau in an interview with the newspapers of the Ebra group (L’Est Républicain, Latest News from Alsace, Dauphiné Liberated, etc.). “Undoubtedly, we will have to go through times more difficult economy. The French economy is moving forward on a road that has become more slippery,” he added. If activity continued to grow in the first quarter, it was above all in the service sector, particularly in the hotel industry- catering, which is gradually recovering from the end of health restrictions linked to the epidemic.On the other hand, in industry, the situation is more contrasted.In February, French industrial production took observers by surprise, falling by 0 .9%, according to INSEE data, and the situation would have worsened further in March. de France now claim to be facing supply difficulties, i.e. 10 points more than in February. supplier r important, especially oil and sunflower cake. They are now 59% to report difficulties, against 45% in February (+14 points), underlines the Banque de France. For the month of April, the central bank points to a situation of “high uncertainty”, in particular in the industry, although companies are still expecting a slight increase in their activity. Services would remain well oriented, while construction companies foresee a “very slight drop” in their activity. In addition to the disruption of supply chains, inflation is a cause for concern. It jumped to 4.5% in March, its highest level since the 1980s, boosted by soaring energy prices.