Stop Russian gas as a punishment for Ukraine? Europe would feel it, but it is recorded in a warm winter – Euractiv.sk

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The end of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline represents only a small penalty for Russia compared to what may come as part of the new sanctions. However, a complete halt to Russia’s gas supplies would also affect Europe itself, as there are not many alternatives.

Russia’s aggression in eastern Ukraine turned into a full-fledged invasion on Wednesday to Thursday night. Russian missiles hit virtually the entire territory of Ukraine, the attack has dozens of victims, including civilians.

In response, the European Union promises the harshest sanctions it has ever imposed on anyone. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke on Thursday morning about her intention to hit strategic sectors of the Russian economy. “We will freeze Russian assets in the EU and stop Russian banks from accessing our financial market. The sanctions are designed to take a heavy toll on the Kremlin’s ability to finance the war, “the commission’s president said.

How informed Brussels-based correspondent of the Media House Kateřina Šafaříková, the European Commission, will also propose a halt to Russian gas supplies to the EU. Other media talk in the same vein about oil.

The country’s leaders, who will meet at an extraordinary summit this evening, must agree to the Commission’s proposals. But how recalls EUobserver, none of the top European politicians has explicitly supported this idea so far. In particular, it was difficult to convince the Hungarian representative of the less severe sanctions so far, so the result is uncertain. The situation may be clarified in the evening.

Both sides would feel it

Energy policy experts contacted by EURACTIV.cz (on Wednesday, ie before the full invasion, note. red.) agreed that a complete halt to gas supplies to Europe, whether by decision of Russia or the EU, was an extreme solution that no one wanted.

“I do not believe that will happen. On the other hand, it is the only area in which Western sanctions would be the most painful for Russia. If you look at the numbers, Russia exports nothing but arms, oil and gas, “explained Lukáš Tichý, head of the research group for energy policy at the Institute of International Relations in Prague.

Of course, this decision would also have great consequences for Europe itself, which now covers 40 percent of its gas consumption with supplies from Russia.

“Sanctions on Russia will not only hurt him but also us. The short-term effect will be higher energy prices that will affect everyone. However, it is our moral duty to stand by Ukraine. In addition, it is less expensive to stop the aggressors now, and not later, when they will be stronger, “wrote Swedish Conservative MEP Charlie Weimers (ECR) on Twitter.

Regarding specific potential impacts, energy policy expert Jan Osička from the Department of International Relations and European Studies of the Faculty of Social Sciences, Masaryk University, explained that there would be supply disruptions. This would exacerbate the energy poverty that is already plaguing Europe.

“All European solidarity articles, national security plans, would start activating the gas. In this case, the industry will start to shut down and efforts are being made to keep European households as long as possible. On the other hand, it would drive the price of electricity completely to heaven, coal would start to be imported and burned in bulk, “Osička estimated a possible scenario.

According to Osička, the short-term effect would be very unpleasant economically, but people would probably no longer die from the winter as in the gas crisis in 2009. Europe has been able to respond and build a more resilient single European market.

According to Pacific Europe, he is currently recording several things, namely the warm winter and the peak of the heating season in sight. “Even though storage tanks are a problem, we have some gas. The Czech Republic would also have gas for 40 days, with small restrictions, when stopped completely. But in the long run, it would not be very good for Europe either, “Tichý explained.

Where to get a refund?

At the same time, Europe must replace possible fuel shortages with resources from other countries. Already during January, the European Union was preparing for the scenario that the flow of Russian gas would actually be limited or stopped.

“The United States and the Union are working together for a sustained, sufficient and timely supply of natural gas to Europe from a variety of sources around the world to prevent shocks, including those that could be caused by another Russian invasion of Ukraine,” said President Joe Biden and Commission chief. von der Leyen at the end of January. They noted that the United States is already the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe and that both parties are working with other countries and market players to expand supply volumes. But they did not mention specific numbers.

Lukáš Tichý named other countries from which the Union could obtain replacement supplies, whether conventional natural gas or LNG. These include Norway, some countries in North or Sub-Saharan Africa or Qatar.

“Even if the capacity were to increase, it would not be enough in the event of a complete cessation of gas from Russia. Russia supplies hundreds of billions of cubic meters of natural gas, while LNG would be in the order of units, “Tichý warned.

Osička specified that Europe already consumes a quarter of the world’s LNG. However, to make up for the Russian shortfall, LNG consumption would have to roughly triple and “bite a large chunk of the world market.” “But this is not possible, because these supplies are contractually bound elsewhere. Free delivery is a third to a half, but this is not realistic. Or it would be at prices that are completely insane, “said Osička.

In any case, it is clear that such a situation would not be sustainable in the long run. Experts point out that if Russia’s gas supplies stopped for a long time, Europe would certainly take many steps to reduce its dependence. In addition to ensuring more stable supplies from countries other than Russia, this includes a faster diversion from gas and the associated faster development of renewables and other alternatives. More specific measures could weaken the electricity and gas interconnection.

According to Osička, such an accelerated change in the European energy mix would harm Russia in particular, which could supply gas to Europe for another 30 years or so. But once Europeans switch to alternatives, they will no longer have the motivation to return to gas, and the Russians will lose a very important market.