Ukrainian crisis: Russians and Americans make an appointment “next week”

Russians and Americans have an appointment “next week”, after “frank” talks on Friday on the Russian-Western crisis around Ukraine which still threatens to degenerate, with tens of thousands of Russian soldiers camping on the Ukrainian border.

The meeting in Geneva between the heads of Russian and American diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov and Antony Blinken, follows two telephone conversations between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden in December. If the tone was “frank and substantial”, according to Mr. Blinken, it also indicated a certain relaxation, after weeks of verbal escalation.

Sergei Lavrov noted that he and his American counterpart “agreed that a reasonable dialogue (was) necessary” for “the emotion to subside”, after just under two hours of discussions.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said on Friday he was “convinced” that a Russian military invasion or incursion into Ukraine “will not happen”. “I firmly hope I am right,” he added, arguing that the worst should be “avoided”.

The Russian Foreign Ministry, however, said that if the West continued to ignore its “legitimate concerns” about the strengthening of NATO in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, this would have “the most serious consequences”.

“This can be avoided if Washington reacts positively to our draft agreements on security guarantees,” the Russian ministry said.

Mr Blinken asked Russia to prove that it had no intention of invading Ukraine by withdrawing its troops from the border.

The Kremlin denies any belligerent intention but conditions a de-escalation on treaties guaranteeing the non-enlargement of NATO, in particular to Ukraine, and a withdrawal from the Atlantic Alliance in Eastern Europe. Unacceptable, say the Westerners, who threaten Russia with destructive sanctions in the event of an attack.

Mr Blinken agreed to put “ideas” on paper for Moscow next week.

The Secretary of State, however, warned that there would be a response even in the event of “non-military” aggression by Russia against Ukraine.

– Back to 1997 –

Basically, “I don’t know if we are on the right track”, summed up Mr. Lavrov, while his counterpart thinks he is “on the right track to understand everyone’s concerns and positions”.

The two men agreed to meet.

First interested, Ukraine welcomed the continuation of “the diplomatic channel of contacts with Russia”, according to its head of diplomacy Dmytro Kouleba.

A sign of the complexity of the situation, Russian diplomacy chose Friday, the day of negotiations, to insist on a withdrawal of NATO troops from all the states that joined the Alliance after 1997, citing by name Bulgaria and Romania. But the list includes 14 countries from the former communist bloc.

Unacceptable, replied the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, echoing the position of all members of the Alliance.

And the United States announced in the wake of large-scale NATO naval exercises in the Mediterranean Sea, starting Monday, with the participation of the American aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman. Maneuvers unrelated to the crisis in Ukraine, assures Washington.

Kiev for its part accused Moscow on Friday of continuing “to strengthen the combat capacities” of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, in particular with tanks, artillery systems and ammunition.

At the same time, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the three Baltic states formerly under Soviet rule, announced on Friday the delivery of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine to enable it to defend itself “in the event of Russian aggression”, castigating the “aggressive and irresponsible behavior” of Moscow.

Washington announced for its part on Saturday the arrival of its first shipment of military aid to Ukraine “to strengthen its defenses against growing Russian aggression”, according to a press release from the American embassy in Kiev.

Russia is considered, despite its denials, as the support of pro-Russian separatists and the instigator of the conflict which has claimed more than 13,000 lives since 2014. That year, it annexed Crimea in reaction to a pro-Russian revolution. Western in Kyiv.

– Russian Muscles –

The Geneva meeting concludes Antony Blinken’s tour of Europe with his Ukrainian, German, French and British allies.

Once again, Europeans and Americans have hammered that Moscow would expose itself to devastating sanctions in the event of an offensive in Ukraine, a threat swept away by the Kremlin, which has never yielded to this form of reprisal in eight years of conflict in Ukraine. .

For Moscow, the essential thing is to force a retreat from NATO, perceived as an existential threat and whose successive enlargements recall the humiliation of the fall of the USSR.

For the Americans, a withdrawal from Europe is impossible, but the Biden administration says it is ready to discuss the Russians’ fears for their safety.

In the meantime, Moscow is displaying its military ambitions and power.

Latest examples: military maneuvers in Belarus, just north of Ukraine, and major naval exercises announced in the Atlantic, Arctic, Pacific and Mediterranean.

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