Ukraine: the strategic importance of the small Russian town of Ielnia

Published on : 12/09/2021 – 5:33 PM

The Americans spoke of more than 70,000 Russian soldiers on the border with Ukraine in early December. Kiev even estimated, Tuesday, December 7, their number at nearly 90,000.

Washington is openly concerned about this military escalation, and the fear of an invasion of Ukraine by Russia was the focal point of the virtual summit on December 7 between US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Poutine. The latter arguing that the troop movements in no way indicated that Moscow had opted for the military option against Kiev.

A lot of noise from boots for barely 10,000 inhabitants

But it’s not just the number of soldiers at the border that matters. Military observers are also very interested in where these soldiers are deployed to try to decode Russian intentions. And “for the past three weeks, all eyes have been turned to the small town of Ielnia, south-east of Smolensk”, Washington Post reports.

It is not the 9,573 souls that inhabit this town that interest military analysts, but the fact that all recent satellite photos disseminated by the media show that Ielnia has become one of the epicenters of Russian troop movements since the spring.

This city was “since 2016, above all the HQ of the 144th motorized division of the land infantry”, recalls Tracey German, specialist in Russian external security issues at King’s College London, contacted by France 24.

But photos published in early November by the satellite imagery company Maxar show that the military contingent there has grown significantly. He received the reinforcement of at least 500 armored vehicles, a tank regiment, ballistic missile launchers and logistics and communication support troops, summarizes the Polish military consulting firm Rochan Consulting, in an analysis of Maxar’s photographs.

In addition, some of this military equipment now stored in Ielnia was previously used by battalions stationed in Siberia and the Urals, notes Janes, a military security consultancy quoted by the Washington Post. “The fact that Moscow brought in equipment from as far away as Novosibirsk is not insignificant”, underlines Gustave Gressel, specialist in Russian military questions at the European Council for International Relations, contacted by France 24.

Above all, these weapons did not make a small tour to the west before returning to Siberia. Reinforcements arrived at the edge of the Ukrainian border last spring and after moving from place to place, this material now appears to be assigned to Ielnia.

Defend Moscow, target Ukraine … or Belarus?

This is not the first time that Yelnia has proven to be an important military crossroads for Russia. “It is the site of an important battle during the Second World War [première contre-offensive réussie des Soviétiques contre les Allemands en 1941, NDLR] and a large military camp had been installed there during the Cold War before being abandoned after the fall of the USSR ”, underlines Ofer Fridman, specialist in Russian military questions at King’s College London, contacted by France 24.

The strategic importance of Ielnia is due to its geographical location. First for defensive reasons: the city is located more than 370 km west of Moscow, and “the Kremlin considers that it is the most important military base to protect the capital”, underlines Ofer Fridman. For him, “if an enemy takes Ielnia, there is not much that can stop its march towards Moscow”.

A strengthening of the military presence in this small town and, from this point of view, very indicative of the nervousness of Russia. It is a way of preparing for a possible open conflict. “It is no coincidence that the army decided to reinvest the city in 2016 [après l’escalade des tensions qui ont suivi l’annexion de la Crimée en 2014, NDLR]”, Adds Ofer Fridman.

Ielnia is also very well located, “not far from the border with Belarus, and from the north of Ukraine,” says Tracey German. In other words, it is “the natural starting point of any offensive towards the north. [Biélorussie] and the south [Ukraine]”Says Ofer Fridman, his colleague at King’s College London.

This location makes the difference, in the eyes of Gustav Gressel. “If we want to understand the intensity of the Russian mobilization effort on the Ukrainian border, we can also observe what is happening at the Pogonovo training camp (250 km east of Ukraine) or at Novoozerne, in Crimea, where the arrival of military reinforcements and the construction of new barracks were noted. But only the troops arriving in Ielnia can serve on several fronts ”, notes this expert from the European Council for International Relations.

Moreover, Gustav Gressel would not be surprised if Moscow took advantage of the fact that all eyes were on the Russian mobilization on the Ukrainian border to reassign, in all discretion, part of its forces to a place where they could especially serve in the event of conflict with NATO over Belarus.