Covid-19: does the emergence of the Omicron variant mark the beginning of the end of the pandemic? – LCI

It worried the whole planet and now raises the hope of an end to the pandemic. The Omicron variant, initially detected in South Africa, has been the source of many restrictions in recent days, including travel to southern Africa. In question, the fears of a stronger contagiousness of the virus and an increased resistance to the vaccine. But recent statements by scientists are much more reassuring.

According to Dr.Anthony Fauci, White House advisor on the pandemic, “it is almost certain that the Omicron variant is not more serious than the Delta”, he said Tuesday evening. Even better, “there are some signs that it could even be even less severe”, he said. In South Africa, the country in which Omicron circulates the most, few serious forms have indeed been identified. If these results are confirmed, is the end of the pandemic at the end of the tunnel?

For Étienne Decroly, research director at the CNRS, it is better not to move forward too quickly. The good efficacy of vaccines on this variant as indicated by the WHO “is still very much discussed”, he tempers with LCI. According to him, initial results in as yet unpublished studies show a “clean” decrease in neutralizing antibodies induced by vaccination or a previous infection on this variant. “It is therefore far too early to say that the vaccine will continue to be effective”, he continues, “the first experimental results are not very encouraging.”

However, a vaccine-resistant variant could be synonymous with reduced virulence, researcher Samuel Alizon explained to LCI last week. A hypothesis that seems to be confirmed for Omicron, even if the data is still lacking. “In South Africa, the place of emergence of the variant, the age pyramid is very different from that in Europe”, with many more young people, recalls Étienne Decroly. Gold, “severe cases are usually spotted in an elderly audience”, a population “not as well represented” in South Africa than in France. “Let’s wait until we have data in comparable populations to reassure us.”

If this hypothesis is true, the number of serious cases in the hospital would then be greatly reduced. However, it is this indicator that the government observes as a priority in order to impose, or not, restrictions. With Omicron, could Covid-19 therefore become a trivial disease, which does not clog our hospital services? Not so sure… “Muted virulence is always good news”, answers Étienne Decroly. “But if this variant is transmitted three or four times better than the previous ones, the number of cases will then be very high. The virulence would therefore have to decrease as much to avoid hospital pressure.”

To date, it seems too early to conclude whether or not Omicron will signal the end of the pandemic. “There are some glimmers of hope”, assures the research director. “But today, we cannot reasonably decide between the different hypotheses.”