Breakthrough by Valérie Pécresse in the polls for the 2022 presidential election: a lasting primary effect? – LCI

Real breakthrough or fleeting scores? Since her designation as a right-wing candidate for the presidential election, Valérie Pécresse has been flying in the polls. Tuesday for the first time, an Elabe poll for BFMTV and The Express gave Valérie Pécresse winner in the second round of the presidential election against Emmanuel Macron. She is credited with 20% of voting intentions in the first, 11 points more than in the previous study of this institute carried out on 23 and 24 November. Monday, an Ifop poll for LCI and Le Figaro credited the LR candidate with 17% of voting intentions in the first round, on a par with Marine Le Pen. A result up 9 points compared to the previous survey, carried out a month earlier.

In the past too, such surges have been observed among candidates who recently won their party’s primary. Not always successful afterwards. The most striking example is that of Benoît Hamon, winner of the socialist primary in 2016. After his appointment, he had gained up to 12 points, for example from 6 to 18% in the surveys of the Ifop institute, and from 6 to 17% at BVA. Before achieving the low score of 6.36% in the first round of the presidential election.

But others had managed to maintain their good results longer, and be more successful. Thus after his victory in the citizen primary in 2011, François Hollande had gained between 5 and 10 points in the surveys, going from 25 to 35% (Ifop) and 30 to 35% (BVA). In the first round of the presidential election in 2012, he won 28.63% of the vote. As for François Fillon, after his victory in the primary of the right and the center in 2016, he also jumped by about 10 points, reaching 29% of voting intentions in the first round. It was before the revelation of the cases, which had made him lose points. He still won 20% of the vote in the first round of the 2017 ballot.

On the other hand, closer to us, the left-wing candidates Anne Hidalgo and Yannick Jadot have not really seen their rating soar in the polls after their appointments. What to give hope to Valérie Pécresse.