At the end of COP26, global warming still far from being contained at 1.5 ° C – archyde

Throughout COP26, scientists, analysts and experts of all kinds have continued to run their calculators. At stake, the evaluation, as quickly as possible, of the successive announcements, the analysis of their impact on the rise in global temperatures. If the figures and methodologies diverge marginally, the conclusions are unanimous: the 26^e United Nations climate conference hints at some future progress in limiting global warming, but participating countries are still far from containing it well below 2 ° C, or 1.5 ° C, as the agreement calls for of Paris on the climate adopted in 2015.

Now, at the end of the Glasgow conference (Scotland), which ended on the evening of Saturday, November 13, more than 150 countries out of 196 have tabled new climate commitments for 2030 (the “NDCs”), as required by the international treaty, and more than 80 states, accounting for three quarters of global emissions, have pledged carbon neutrality by mid-century, including India, which has pledged to achieve net zero emissions by 2070. But, “When you look at these new commitments, frankly, it’s the mountain that gave birth to a mouse”, said Inger Andersen, Director of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), during the COP.

The international organization, which has updated, on November 9, its annual report on climate action, still predicts a warming of 2.7 ° C at the end of the century compared to the pre-industrial era (with a probability of 66%), based on the new NDCs. There is progress, as UNEP’s assessments based on previous climate plans, tabled in 2015, instead predicted an increase of 3.2 ° C – although the methodology has since changed. This improvement is mainly due to an increase in the ambition of the European Union, the United States and China.

Ambiguous commitments, lack of transparency …

The fact remains that we are still far from the account: the new plans, taken on a voluntary basis by the States, would lead, if they are to be met, to a 14% increase in emissions by 2030 compared to 2010, while ‘they would have to be reduced by 45% to hope to limit the warming to 1.5 ° C. This gap is explained by the fact that only a large half of the countries have increased their efforts. The others, such as Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, Indonesia and Vietnam, have adopted new objectives which mark no progress, or even are less ambitious.

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