SUFFICIENT – The announcement that the health pass will soon be conditioned, for the elderly, on a third dose of vaccine, had an immediate effect, since hundreds of thousands of appointments have been made. Are the stocks of vaccines sufficient? LCI takes stock.
Lea Coupau –
As everywhere in Europe, the epidemic resumption is confirmed in France, with more than 10,000 new contaminations this beginning of the week. A record rate since the end of September. Faced with the resurgence of the Covid-19 epidemic, the government is working hard.
As of September, people over 65 and over who have been doubly vaccinated for more than six months can receive a third dose. This week, Emmanuel Macron also announced that the same age group had to undergo this booster dose before mid-December, subject to having their health pass suspended.
On December 1, it will be the turn of 50-64 year olds to be able to have a third dose administered, without however having their health pass subject to it. Caregivers and people with co-morbidities are also eligible for the third dose regardless of their age. But they will not be deprived of their pass in the absence of a booster dose, assured the Elysee.
A question nevertheless arises: will France have enough doses of vaccine?
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Covid-19: the challenge of vaccination
As of November 11, 2021, more than 6 million of our seniors are eligible for the booster, according to figures from Public Health France. Among them, 3.9 million have already reached out for a third time. Only 2 million are still missing.
On December 15, when their health pass may no longer be valid, more than 9 million will be eligible, including those who have already received their 3rd dose. They will be added to the almost 12 million 50-64 year olds authorized to be tripled vaccinated from December 1, according to the same data from the ministry.
A few quick calculations suggest that at least 17 million doses – 12 million 50-64 year olds and the almost 5 million remaining 65 years and older not triply-vaccinated – will be needed to ensure all new injections by mid-year. -December.
The question of the type of vaccine
But for what type of vaccine? In a press release at the end of August, the Haute Autorité de Santé leaves carte blanche for people aged 50 and over, estimating “That there is no sufficient argument, to date, to preferentially recommend one vaccine over the other for the booster dose”. For the authority, “The two available mRNA vaccines are both very effective against severe forms of Covid-19, including those related to the Delta variant.”
At the beginning of November, she specifies: the Moderna vaccine is too risky for those under 30. Reaction on the government side, the Ministry of Health announces that it is following this recommendation and suspending the Moderna vaccine for the youngest.
Arrivals by the millions
Where can you find all these doses? According to the latest figures from the Directorate General of Health, 1.8 million doses of Pfizer vaccine and 2.1 million doses of Moderna vaccine will be delivered every week in November. It will be a little more the following month. In December, health authorities will receive 2.3 million Pfizer doses and 1.9 million Moderna doses every week.
Let’s continue with the calculations. By multiplying the number of weeks by the number of vaccine doses delivered every 7 days, France will accumulate at the end of November, 7.2 million doses of Pfizer and 8.4 other million on the side of Moderna. In total, 15.6 million new doses available on November 30.
To this must be added the three deliveries of doses until December 15: 6.9 million for Pfizer and 5.7 million for the American competitor. That is again, 12.6 million doses in total.
Read also
- Covid-19: 3rd dose, where are we in Europe?
- 3rd dose of anti-Covid vaccine: is France going against WHO recommendations?
In short, if it will therefore take almost 17 million booster doses on December 15 for those 50 years and over, the figures clearly show that with 28.4 million doses, Pfizer or Moderna, all these people wanting to be vaccinate will be able to do it without worry.
In these calculations, caregivers and people with co-morbidities were not taken into account. But that’s not counting the more than 30 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines still in stock, according to figures from the Ministry of Health.
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