China is developing its nuclear arsenal much faster than expected, Pentagon worried

Has the international community underestimated China’s capabilities? According to a report released this Wednesday by the Pentagon, the country is developing its nuclear arsenal much faster than expected. The US Department of Defense estimates that Beijing can already launch ballistic missiles armed with nuclear warheads from land, sea and air.

“The acceleration of China’s nuclear expansion could allow it to have 700 nuclear warheads by 2027”, indicates this annual report on China’s military capabilities. “It is likely that Beijing will seek to acquire at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, which is higher than the rate and volume estimated in 2020”.

In the previous edition of this report to Congress, published on September 1, 2020, the Pentagon assessed that China matters “about 200” nuclear warheads, but believed that this figure would double over the next ten years. With 700 nuclear warheads by 2027 and 1000 by 2030, the projections of the American military show a very strong acceleration of Beijing’s nuclear activities. “China has probably already established a nascent ‘nuclear triad'”, that is, the ability to launch nuclear ballistic missiles from sea, land and air, according to this document.

To arrive at these figures, the authors of the report relied in particular on statements by Chinese officials in official media and on satellite images showing the construction of a significant number of nuclear silos, a senior official told the press. Ministry of Defense, by presenting this document, only part of which is made public, the rest being classified as a defense secret.

The projections include submarine ballistic missiles and those launched by bombers, as well as the “mobile missile force”, which allows missiles to be launched from trucks, the official said on condition of anonymity.

“It’s very worrying for us”, he admitted, adding that this acceleration “raises questions about their intentions”. In October 2020, the Chinese Communist Party set itself the goal of modernizing the theories, organization, personnel, armaments and equipment of its army by 2027, the report recalls. “If achieved, these goals would give Beijing more credible military options against Taiwan”, underlines the document.

Former chief of US forces in the Indo-Pacific region, Admiral Philip Davidson, told Congress in March that China could invade the island “over the next six years”, i.e. by 2027.

The passes of arms have multiplied in recent weeks between China and the United States on the fate of the territory, governed by a democratic government, but considered as a Chinese province by Beijing which says it is determined to operate a “reunification”, by force if necessary.

US President Joe Biden recently claimed that the United States had “commitment” to defend Taiwan militarily in the event of a Chinese attack. The Pentagon this year added to its annual report a chapter on China’s research in the chemical and biological field, which it considers “disturbing”.

“China has engaged in potentially applicable biological activities” in the military field, says the document. “Based on the information available, the United States cannot guarantee that China is complying with the International Chemical Weapons Convention”.

Even with 1,000 nuclear warheads, the Chinese arsenal would be far from equaling that of the United States and Russia, which together possess more than 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons: 5,550 for Washington and 6,255 for Moscow, according to estimates by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri).