When global warming pushes countries in the Middle East to come closer

On the occasion of the COP26, which opened earlier this week in Glasgow, Scotland and during which the world’s leaders are supposed to focus their efforts to fight against global warming, the time has come for regional cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

The ongoing climatic upheavals are awakening some consciousness in this tormented region of the world, where multiple conflicts and geostrategic tensions are accustomed to relegate environmental issues to government priorities. And where greenhouse gas emissions are now higher than those of the European Union.

“We must act collectively, decisively and on the basis of scientific knowledge”, pleaded, Tuesday 2 November, Costas Kadis, the Cypriot Minister for the Environment.

Costas Kadis was speaking at a session held within the framework of the COP26, during which he announced the organization, in February 2022, of a meeting at the ministerial level of the countries of the region intended to validate a plan of ten-year climate cooperation action.

The heads of state concerned are then expected to meet in early autumn in Cyprus to ratify its implementation program, he said. This final step will crown the efforts of Cyprus, at the origin of this mobilization with the launch of the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Climate Change Initiative (EMME-CCI), in 2019.

The country also hosted, in mid-October in Paphos, the International Conference on Climate Change in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. A conference attended in particular by officials, delegates and scientists from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Omani, Palestinians, Lebanese, Jordanians and Israelis, and whose conclusions were presented Tuesday in Glasgow.

An “area at risk of climate change”

The action plan, called “Policy framework and measures for the climate crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region”, emphasizes green sustainable development, the protection of biodiversity and the development of research and technology.

These are all critical issues for the Middle East, a region classified as a “zone at risk of climate change” by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and already weakened by the increase in heat waves and galloping population growth weighing on its scarce water resources.

This summer, temperatures exceeded 50 ° C in Kuwait, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran.

Without reaction, the situation can quickly worsen, a little faster than elsewhere according to scientists. “It is likely that most countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will face potentially greater risks from climate and environmental change than other regions of the Mediterranean Basin, while their ability to monitoring important environmental parameters or carrying out adequate risk analyzes is limited, “said the organization Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change, which last year published its “First assessment report on the Mediterranean”.

Cooperation-oriented diplomacy

While many countries in the Middle East have still not ratified the Paris agreement, such as Iran, Iraq and Yemen, some powers, accused of making no effort on climate matters, have started to take measurements. In the Gulf in particular, where the economies of the petromonarchies, still in the sights of environmental NGOs, remain very dependent on the exploitation of hydrocarbons.

Saudi Arabia, which seeks to diversify its economy, announced last week to aim for carbon neutrality by 2060. It is following in the footsteps of the United Arab Emirates, which has launched an ecological strategy by 2050. That -It aims in particular to increase the share of clean energies from 25 to 50% and to reduce the carbon footprint of electricity production by 70%.

Countries in the region also seem to rely on cooperation, believing that coordinated and international efforts can have a greater regional impact. A vision translated into a kind of climate diplomacy already in force between states in the Middle East. In particular between Israel, which has advanced technologies and is well ahead in the field, and a few Arab countries.

And this, even if the old reflexes remain in place: at the end of July, after the anger of NGOs, the Israeli government was forced to postpone the implementation of a draft oil transport agreement with the United Arab Emirates. for ecological reasons.

Still, a few months ago, in June, Tel Aviv University and the United Arab Emirates – which had announced the normalization of their relations with the Hebrew state in the summer of 2020 – indicated that they were going to create a joint water research institute.

More recently, in October, Jordan, one of the world’s most water-deficient countries, signed an agreement to double the amount of water supplied by the Israelis, world leaders in desalination. As part of this climate diplomacy, Israel could source green electricity of solar origin from Jordanians.

This agreement “reflects the growing understanding that the climate crisis which is already heavily affecting the region must lead to greater cooperation,” said Gidon Bromberg, director for Israel of the regional environmental NGO EcoPeace Middle East. Pointing out in the columns of the Guardian that “electricity has never crossed the Israeli border from a neighboring country,” he called for a “Green Deal” in the Middle East.

Fight against global warming to prevent future tensions?

This climate diplomacy remains exceptional and in its infancy. Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Chtayyeh thus declared, during a speech delivered Monday in Glasgow, that the Israeli occupation is “the greatest threat to the Palestinian environment”.

But this diplomacy can be used to prevent and guard against the consequences of future conflicts around water scarcity and temperature increases making certain territories uninhabitable, while tensions already exist around the management of water resources in rivers. from the Euphrates or the Tigris.

“It is an already dry region which will dry up, so there will be insecurity linked to water and the displacement of populations”, recently warned Jeffrey Sachs, head of the Solutions for Development Network. sustainable development of the United Nations (UNSDSN), quoted by AFP.

In July, many cities in the Iranian province of Khuzestan, in the southwest of the country, were the scene of multiple strikes and demonstrations against water shortages, for daily consumption but also for agriculture and water supply. ‘breeding. Demonstrations repressed in blood by the Iranian authorities.

“For conflicts, the impact of future climate change remains rather speculative, judges for its part the organization Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change. However, recent historical experience shows the possibility that significant and rapid climate change could further exacerbate political instability in the poorest regions of the Mediterranean basin. “

An additional factor of destabilization that could do without several countries in the Middle East.